Key Points
- Initial forecasts pegged the price at $3,300, but central banks’ monthly gold acquisitions, averaging 80 tons — much higher than the 17-ton average before 2022 — have warranted a forecast revision.
- Gold prices have already seen a significant increase of over 23% in 2025, surpassing the $3,200 mark for the first time.
- Should central banks continue acquiring at an accelerated pace, or if a recession prompts a capital influx into ETFs, gold could rise to $3,880 within this year.
What To Watch
Economists estimate a 45% chance of a U.S. recession within 12 months, potentially redirecting capital to gold ETFs. Should central banks ramp up purchases to 100 tons monthly, or recession-driven demand persist, gold might reach $3,880 by year-end. Alternatively, if economies show resilience and political uncertainty lessens, gold prices could stabilize around $3,550.
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