In a bold forecast, Goldman Sachs has increased its gold price prediction to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025. This adjustment comes amid unexpected demand from central banks and a strengthening perception of recession risks, drawing investors towards gold ETFs.
Key Points
Initial forecasts pegged the price at $3,300, but central banks’ monthly gold acquisitions, averaging 80 tons — much higher than the 17-ton average before 2022 — have warranted a forecast revision.
Gold prices have already seen a significant increase of over 23% in 2025, surpassing the $3,200 mark for the first time.
Should central banks continue acquiring at an accelerated pace, or if a recession prompts a capital influx into ETFs, gold could rise to $3,880 within this year.
What To Watch
Economists estimate a 45% chance of a U.S. recession within 12 months, potentially redirecting capital to gold ETFs. Should central banks ramp up purchases to 100 tons monthly, or recession-driven demand persist, gold might reach $3,880 by year-end. Alternatively, if economies show resilience and political uncertainty lessens, gold prices could stabilize around $3,550.
Cyprus recorded a general government surplus of €1.61 billion in the first nine months of 2026, equal to 4.0% of gross domestic product, as revenue growth outpaced the rise in public spending. Higher receipts from income taxes, social contributions and value-added tax (VAT) drove the improvement, while lower capital expenditure helped restrain spending.
Preliminary figures released Tuesday by the Statistical Service of Cyprus show the surplus rose to €1.17 billion, or 3.0% of GDP, up from € 442.1 million in the same period of 2025.
Total government revenue increased 6.5% to €12.09 billion, while expenditure rose 2.9% to €10.48 billion.
Key Fiscal Measure
January–September 2025
January–September 2026
Total revenue
€11,353.9 million
€12,091.8 million
Total expenditure
€10,186.2 million
€10,482.1 million
Government surplus
€1,167.6 million
€1,609.7 million
Surplus as a share of GDP
3.0%
4.0%
Income Taxes And VAT Lead Revenue Growth
Taxes on income and wealth made the largest contribution to the increase in revenue. Receipts in this category climbed by €442.2 million, or 15.3%, to €3.34 billion, compared with €2.89 billion a year earlier.
Social contributions rose by €235 million, or 6.6%, to €3.78 billion. Taxes on production and imports increased by €251.5 million, or 7.2%, reaching €3.77 billion.
Net VAT receipts, after refunds, totalled €2.64 billion, up €293.1 million, or 12.5%, from €2.35 billion in the first nine months of 2025.
Some Revenue Streams Decline
Not all revenue categories moved higher. Capital transfers fell by €74.6 million to €96.7 million, while current transfers declined by €71.6 million, or 20.5%, to €278.2 million.
Revenue from services slipped 1.0% to €743.5 million. Interest and dividend receipts dropped by €37 million, or 28.6%, to €92.4 million.
Social Benefits And Personnel Costs Increase
On the expenditure side, social benefits rose by €199.6 million, or 4.9%, to €4.27 billion. Compensation of employees—which includes imputed social contributions and public-sector pensions—increased by €108.3 million, or 3.8%, to €2.99 billion.
Intermediate consumption, covering goods and services used in the delivery of public services, rose by €114.3 million, or 11.0%, to €1.16 billion. Interest payments increased by €8.7 million, or 2.6%, to €340.7 million. Current transfers were up €68.7 million, or 10.6%, at €714.7 million.
Lower Capital Spending Limits Expenditure Growth
The overall increase in spending was tempered by a decline in capital expenditure. Capital-account spending fell by €189.9 million, or 16.9%, to €936.2 million from €1.13 billion in the same period last year.
Investment in fixed capital declined by €94.1 million, or 12.1%, to €686.4 million. Other capital transfers fell by €95.8 million, or 27.7%, to €249.8 million. Subsidies also decreased, dropping by €13.9 million, or 15.5%, to €75.8 million.
Manage Cookie Consent
We use cookies to enhance your browsing experience. By clicking "Accept All", you consent to our use of cookies. Privacy Policy
Functional
Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
