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Economic Earthquake: Billionaire Bill Ackman Warns Of A Looming ‘Economic Nuclear Winter’ In The US

Are the US Markets Facing an ‘Economic Nuclear Winter’?

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman has cast a shadow over the US economic outlook, warning of a potential ‘economic nuclear winter’. This grim prediction arises from the recent sweeping tariffs imposed by the US administration.

Key Insights

  • Ackman criticized the decision to levy massive tariffs on global trade partners, arguing it undermines the US’s reliability as a trading partner. He initially supported the administration’s leadership.
  • The tariffs, effective immediately, impose a 10% base rate on imports across over 180 countries, with China enduring a hefty 54% rate.
  • This week, American stocks plummeted by 9.08%, inciting fears of a global economic slowdown.
  • Institutions like J.P. Morgan have revised recession forecasts, indicating a 60% likelihood by year-end.

Ackman’s Cautionary Advice

Ackman emphasized, “Business is built on trust. As global leaders’ trust wanes, the repercussions for the US will be severe, especially affecting low-income households already under significant economic pressure.”

Next Steps and Future Watch

Looking ahead, Ackman urges for mediation, suggesting a ‘timeout’ on tariffs to renegotiate fairer customs agreements.

For an in-depth look at global market changes, explore our piece on Cyprus On Alert As Global Trade Tensions Rise.

Moreover, discussions around AI’s economic influence might hold keys to future economic landscapes. Read about AI’s Economic Potential: $4.8 Trillion And A Growing Divide.

EBA Unveils 2024 Report to Strengthen Supervisory Convergence Across the EU

Overview

The European Banking Authority’s 2024 annual report details a comprehensive effort to harmonize supervisory practices across the European Union. The report outlines strategic initiatives across prudential supervision, resolution and crisis management, digital finance, consumer protection, and the interim AML/CFT framework until the end of 2025. This marks a decisive step in implementing further recommendations from the EBA’s evaluation of regulatory efficiency.

Consolidating Prudential Supervision

The EBA’s European Supervisory Examination Programme for 2024 focused on critical areas such as liquidity and funding risk, interest rate risk, and the operationalization of recovery measures. With risk levels remaining stable amidst ongoing challenges in data quality, stress testing, and modelling assumptions, the EBA is set to intensify its monitoring activities for online deposit platforms and oversee compliance with Supervisory Outlier Tests in 2025.

Advances in Resolution And Crisis Management

In the realm of resolution, the report highlights significant progress in operationalizing resolution tools, notably the bail-in mechanism in cross-border environments. Improved coordination among authorities, enhanced management information systems, and persistent efforts to refine data quality and legal recognition issues underpin this advancement.

Strategic Developments in Digital Finance

With digital finance at the forefront, the EBA has prioritized its preparations for the implementation of the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation. Efforts include the supervision of asset reference tokens and e-money token issuers, the development of an EU-wide supervisory handbook, and the coordination of workshops aimed at establishing a unified supervisory approach from the outset.

Enhancing Consumer Protection And AML/CFT Measures

The report also underscores improved cooperation and risk-based supervision among national authorities in consumer protection and AML/CFT. Notable progress has been achieved through AML/CFT college monitoring and implementation reviews, as the EBA prepares for the eventual transfer of AML/CFT supervisory responsibilities to the new EU Anti-Money Laundering Authority by the close of 2025.

Fostering A Common Supervisory Culture

Beyond sector-specific improvements, the EBA continues to champion supervisory convergence through robust cross-border initiatives including peer reviews, Q&A sessions, breach of Union law investigations, and comprehensive training programmes. In 2024 alone, 23 courses were delivered to over 3,000 participants, reinforcing best practices and aligning supervisory standards throughout the EU.

Future Trajectory

Looking ahead, the EBA is set to place greater emphasis on the effective implementation of the Single Rulebook. This strategic pivot will enhance supervisory outcomes and ensure the consistent application of regulatory measures, as reflected in the annual reports to the European Parliament and the Council under the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process.

With these measures, the EBA reaffirms its commitment to building a unified and resilient supervisory framework, essential for navigating the complex regulatory landscape of the European financial sector.

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