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Cyprus On Alert As Global Trade Tensions Rise

by News Editor
The island of Cyprus stands on the brink of economic uncertainty as tensions escalate within the European Union’s trade landscape. While not a focal point of these disputes, Cyprus faces significant economic repercussions, particularly impacting its vital tourism and export sectors.

Concerns From The Government

Deputy government spokesman Yiannis Antoniou expressed concern over the evolving economic landscape, noting, “The economic environment is becoming increasingly negative, raising multiple uncertainties.” Antoniou highlighted how Cyprus’s limited trade partnerships might still be affected: “While Cyprus isn’t a major export player, the broader EU economic impact will influence living standards for many Europeans.”

Impact On Tourism And Exports

As tourism remains the cornerstone of Cyprus’s economy, any economic downturn across Europe could directly affect travel budgets. Antoniou pointed out, “When disposable income falls, travel is among the first luxuries to be cut—which we must prepare for.”

Beyond tourism, key exports like halloumi could experience setbacks. Antonis Fragoudes from the Federation of Employers and Industrialists stated, “With nearly €9.5 million in halloumi exports to the US, rising tariffs would challenge our competitiveness.”

Explore how Greek feta producers are handling similar challenges.

Broader Economic Implications

Amidst broader global turmoil, local businesses remain cautious. Economic instability in key markets, due to actions like US tariffs on European vehicles, poses risks. Andreas Andreou from the Cyprus Chamber of Commerce noted, “Declines in EU jobs or consumer confidence could limit tourism inflow to Cyprus.”

While the European Central Bank may consider adjusted policies, some analysts suggest Cyprus diversify its trade alliances outside the EU and the US, reaching out to newer markets in the Middle East and Asia.

Economist Tassos Yiasemides emphasized, “Strategically seeking alternative trade agreements is vital for sustaining our economic resilience.”

As global trade volatility persists, the importance of preemptive strategies to protect Cyprus’s economic future becomes critical.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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