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Bank of Cyprus Receives Notable Ratings Upgrade By Fitch

In a remarkable financial development, Fitch Ratings has elevated the ratings of the Bank of Cyprus Public Company Limited (BoC) from ‘BB+’ to ‘BBB-‘, indicating a strong positive outlook. This upgrade underscores the bank’s enhanced asset quality and robust capitalization.

The rating improvement is largely attributed to the bank’s strategic reduction in problematic legacy assets, such as non-performing exposures (NPEs) and net foreclosed properties. This has enabled a healthier capital structure with reduced encumbrance by unresolved problem assets.

Fitch notes that despite lowering interest rates, BoC’s profitability remains solid thanks to its competence as the largest domestic bank in Cyprus. With consistent deleveraging, it is poised for ongoing financial stability.

Prospective Economic Growth For Cypriot Banks

The favorable outlook anticipates better business and financial prospects amidst Cyprus’s economic growth, with decreasing unemployment and lower private sector debt. BoC’s plans to expand into wealth management and insurance activities stand to gain from these economic trends.

Expectations are that the ratio of BoC’s problem assets will drop below 5% within two years, thanks to diminishing NPE portfolios and active disposals of foreclosed assets. Last year, the bank’s operating profit/risk-weighted assets (RWA) ratio was a robust 5.4%, indicating a sustainable path forward.

Financial Strength And Stability

By the end of 2024, BoC boasted a common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 19.2%, with a notable buffer over regulatory demands. The bank’s CET1 encumbrance by problem assets fell significantly owing to further disposals.

Supported by a strong Cypriot deposit base, BoC maintains excellent liquidity. Looking ahead, while a downgrade is improbable, Fitch warns that any economic downturn in Cyprus could impact ratings. However, further elevation of the operating environment for Cypriot banks could enhance BoC’s business profile.

If you’re curious about technological advancements in Cyprus, read AI At Work: Cyprus Among Europe’s Most AI-Skeptical Nations.

European Central Bank Report Highlights Stable Inflation and Economic Outlook

Overview Of Inflation Trends

The latest European Central Bank survey shows a slight decline in median inflation expectations over the next 12 months, decreasing from 2.8% in August to 2.7% in September. Despite this minor adjustment, consumer perceptions of past 12-month inflation have held steady at 3.1% for the eighth consecutive month. Long-term projections for three- and five-year inflation remain stable at 2.5% and 2.2% respectively.

Consumer Expectations Drive Income And Spending Projections

Across the board, expectations for nominal income growth over the upcoming year have remained consistent at 1.1%. However, there is a noticeable shift in spending behavior: while perceived nominal spending growth for the past year slipped slightly to 4.9% from 5.0%, expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months rose to 3.5%. Notably, lower income groups continue to forecast marginally higher spending increases compared to their higher income counterparts.

Stability In Economic And Labour Market Outlook

Economic growth expectations are modestly pessimistic, with respondents forecasting a contraction of -1.2% over the next 12 months. Concurrently, anticipated unemployment levels remain unchanged at 10.7% a year ahead, though the outlook varies by income, with lower income households expecting unemployment rates as high as 12.7%, while higher income groups maintain expectations around 9.4%. Overall, the slight difference between current and future unemployment suggests a broadly stable labor market outlook.

Housing Market And Credit Conditions

The survey also reveals an upswing in expectations related to the housing market. Home price growth expectations have edged higher to 3.5%, and anticipated mortgage interest rates have risen modestly to 4.6%. Similar to other metrics, expectations vary by income, with lower income households expecting higher mortgage rates. In recent months, a marginal decline in reported credit tightening over the past 12 months contrasts with a renewed forecast of tighter credit conditions in the forthcoming year.

Conclusion

The ECB’s latest findings underscore the delicate balance between stable long-term economic forecasts and short-term adjustments in consumer expectations. The slight dips in inflation expectations, alongside stable perceptions of past inflation, delineate a marketplace that is both cautious and measured. As income, spending, and housing market metrics continue to evolve, these indicators provide critical insights for policymakers and investors navigating an increasingly complex economic landscape.

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