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Bank of Cyprus Receives Notable Ratings Upgrade By Fitch

In a remarkable financial development, Fitch Ratings has elevated the ratings of the Bank of Cyprus Public Company Limited (BoC) from ‘BB+’ to ‘BBB-‘, indicating a strong positive outlook. This upgrade underscores the bank’s enhanced asset quality and robust capitalization.

The rating improvement is largely attributed to the bank’s strategic reduction in problematic legacy assets, such as non-performing exposures (NPEs) and net foreclosed properties. This has enabled a healthier capital structure with reduced encumbrance by unresolved problem assets.

Fitch notes that despite lowering interest rates, BoC’s profitability remains solid thanks to its competence as the largest domestic bank in Cyprus. With consistent deleveraging, it is poised for ongoing financial stability.

Prospective Economic Growth For Cypriot Banks

The favorable outlook anticipates better business and financial prospects amidst Cyprus’s economic growth, with decreasing unemployment and lower private sector debt. BoC’s plans to expand into wealth management and insurance activities stand to gain from these economic trends.

Expectations are that the ratio of BoC’s problem assets will drop below 5% within two years, thanks to diminishing NPE portfolios and active disposals of foreclosed assets. Last year, the bank’s operating profit/risk-weighted assets (RWA) ratio was a robust 5.4%, indicating a sustainable path forward.

Financial Strength And Stability

By the end of 2024, BoC boasted a common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 19.2%, with a notable buffer over regulatory demands. The bank’s CET1 encumbrance by problem assets fell significantly owing to further disposals.

Supported by a strong Cypriot deposit base, BoC maintains excellent liquidity. Looking ahead, while a downgrade is improbable, Fitch warns that any economic downturn in Cyprus could impact ratings. However, further elevation of the operating environment for Cypriot banks could enhance BoC’s business profile.

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IMF Says Cyprus Growth Will Ease As Energy Costs And Regional Tensions Weigh On Economy

Cyprus is expected to remain among the better-performing economies in the European Union, although growth is projected to moderate this year as higher energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and softer tourism activity weigh on economic momentum.

Growth Set To Moderate After A Strong Run

In its latest Article IV Consultation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that the Cypriot economy has remained resilient despite a challenging external environment. However, the Fund expects growth to slow compared with last year as rising energy costs and regional tensions begin to affect household incomes, business confidence, and tourism flows.

“Growth is expected to moderate this year as higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions weigh on real incomes, tourism and confidence,” the IMF said.

The Fund projects GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026, compared with 3.8% in 2025. Under a more adverse scenario involving a prolonged crisis in the Gulf region, growth could slow further to 1.7%.

Inflation Is Turning Higher Again

Alongside slower growth, inflation is expected to increase in the near term after easing significantly last year. According to the IMF, higher energy costs linked to developments in the Middle East are beginning to feed through to consumer prices.

“Inflation is projected to rise in the near term before easing. Risks are tilted to the downside, notably from a more prolonged war in the Middle East, tighter global financial conditions and weaker external demand. Medium-term prospects are more balanced, supported by strong fundamentals and reform momentum,” the Fund said.

The harmonised inflation rate, which declined to 0.8% in 2025, is forecast to rise to 3.5% this year before easing again to 1.5% in 2027.

Tourism Softens, But Fiscal And Financial Buffers Hold

While the IMF pointed to signs of weaker tourism activity, it said the broader economy continues to benefit from strong fiscal and financial fundamentals.

“Fiscal performance has remained strong, with continued surpluses and public debt declining below 60 per cent of GDP. The financial sector is sound, with strong capital and liquidity buffers and improving asset quality,” the report noted.

Domestic demand remains resilient, while exports of services continue to support economic activity. Sectors such as information and communications technology and tourism are expected to remain important contributors to growth, helping Cyprus maintain one of the strongest economic performances within the EU.

A Recovery Built On Policy Discipline

The IMF praised the Cypriot authorities for maintaining a strong fiscal position, rebuilding policy buffers and putting public debt on a clear downward trajectory. It also pointed to the country’s remarkable rebound since the 2013 banking crisis. Per capita GDP, measured against the EU average, has now returned to pre-crisis levels.

That said, the Fund urged policymakers to keep focusing on the quality of public finances. It said Cyprus should improve the efficiency of spending and taxation, prioritise high-quality public investment and maintain discipline in public wage growth.

Any support for households, the IMF added, should be temporary and tightly targeted. It welcomed the government’s recent comprehensive tax reform and a proposal to build financial assets in the social security fund.

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