Coffee prices have surged by up to 20% over the past few months, compelling consumers to rethink their habits. This increase is reflected not only in supermarkets but also in cafes, where the beloved drink of the Greeks is experiencing a new trial.

In particular, Greek and instant coffee, which make up 70% of retail sales by volume, saw a price hike of 14% and 11%, respectively. Meanwhile, espresso coffees—ground and in capsules—saw an average increase of 6%.

Follow THE FUTURE on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X and Telegram

The price of a 200-gram package of popular instant coffee now stands at €9.38, up from €8.48 in February, while a 340-gram package of Greek coffee has risen to €7.60 from €6.30.

Cafeteria Prices Keep Climbing

The cost of coffee outside the home has also edged up, with increases ranging from 5% to 20%. While the hospitality industry tries to absorb these increases, operational costs like wages, rent, and energy remain principal concerns. Recent tax changes, like the VAT increase from 13% to 24%, coupled with the Special Consumption Tax, further burden the sector.

The Influence of Market and Production Factors

The surge in coffee prices is largely due to market concerns over this year’s harvest in Brazil, the largest Arabica coffee producer globally, and a significant drop in Robusta exports from Vietnam. The price of Arabica coffee hit a historic high of $440.85 per pound in February, a 17.72% increase since the start of the year.

Consumers are adapting by drinking more coffee at home, with only 30% of consumption happening outside the home, down from 60% pre-COVID-19. Many chase promotions and opt for more affordable private-label brands.

Embracing New Buying Patterns

In January, consumers rushed to take advantage of steep discounts offered by multinational companies on instant, Greek, and espresso capsules before the expected price increases. This led to a turnover of €54.11 million in retail, up 4.6% from 2024, according to market research by Circana.

Interestingly, despite a 14.1% decrease in espresso sales, private-label products gained significant traction, increasing by 36.5% over the same period, with sales doubling since 2021. Espresso capsules are now chosen based on available offers, making it a competitive market with no brand holding more than 35% market share.

In summary, while coffee remains a staple, changing market dynamics and economic factors are shifting consumption patterns, offering an array of opportunities and challenges for retailers and producers alike.