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World Bank Forecasts Global Economy To Grow 2.7% In 2025 And 2026, Marking A Period Of Stabilization

The global economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, maintaining the same pace as in 2024, according to the latest report from the World Bank. This steady growth signals a phase of stabilization, with inflation and interest rates expected to gradually decrease.

For developing economies, growth is expected to remain resilient over the next two years, holding steady at around 4%. However, this growth is still constrained compared to pre-pandemic levels, raising concerns about the ongoing challenge of poverty reduction and broader development goals.

The World Bank highlighted that developing economies, which account for 60% of global growth, are likely to conclude the first quarter of the 21st century with the weakest long-term growth prospects since 2000. The first decade of the century saw remarkable growth, but the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, along with other global challenges, has slowed down progress.

Economic integration has weakened, as foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and GDP share in developing economies are now roughly half of what they were in the early 2000s. Meanwhile, global trade restrictions have surged in 2024, with new barriers reaching five times the average of the 2010-2019 period. As a result, global economic growth has diminished, dropping from 5.9% in the 2000s to 5.1% in the 2010s, and now to 3.5% in the 2020s.

In a statement, Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, expressed concern over the future challenges facing developing economies: “The next 25 years will be tougher than the last 25. Most of the factors that once boosted their rise have faded. In their place, we now face tough headwinds: high debt, weak investment, slow productivity growth, and the escalating costs of climate change.”

The report also noted the potential impact of US President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to implement a 10% tariff across a wide range of imports. This could further hinder an already sluggish global economic recovery.

However, there is still hope for stronger-than-expected growth if the world’s largest economies, particularly the US and China, regain momentum.

The increasing importance of developing economies is evident in the shifting global economic landscape. Developing nations now represent 45% of global GDP, up from just 25% in 2000. This growth is largely driven by rapid urbanization, industrialization, and technology adoption in regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Key factors fueling this expansion include the rise of the middle class, infrastructure development, and an expanding services sector. The World Bank reports that more than 40% of exports from developing economies now go to other developing nations, a significant increase from 20% in 2000. Additionally, these countries are becoming crucial sources of capital flows, remittances, and development aid to others.

M Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, emphasized that developing economies must adopt bold, innovative policies to capitalize on new opportunities for cross-border cooperation amid a landscape shaped by policy uncertainty and escalating trade tensions.

Google’s Gemini Has A Branding Problem As AI Apps Grow More Complicated

Google’s latest Gemini update highlights a broader problem in consumer AI: companies are increasingly turning internal tools and capabilities into separate products that users must learn to navigate.

In its announcement of new Gemini Live voice features, Google said users should not have to determine whether a task requires Spark, Daily Brief or a simple inbox search. Yet those are precisely the distinctions the Gemini app currently asks users to make.

Too Many Features, Too Many Names

Gemini users can switch between Chat, Spark and Daily Brief, each with its own icon and place in the app. Rather than simplifying the experience, the growing list of branded features risks making the underlying technology more visible than it needs to be.

Daily Brief illustrates the problem. Google describes it as a source of personalised, proactive updates based on information from services such as Gmail and Calendar. In practice, however, some of its suggestions can feel less like useful assistance and more like unsolicited reminders about previous searches or unfinished research.

Spark has almost the opposite problem. The feature can act as an AI agent capable of completing tasks on a user’s behalf, but packaging that capability under a separate brand forces users to understand when and where they should use it.

A simpler approach would be to let users describe what they need and allow Gemini to determine whether a standard response, an agent or another capability is appropriate.

Gemini Is Not Alone

Google’s approach reflects a wider trend across the AI industry, where companies increasingly expose the architecture of their products through separate modes and branded features.

Anthropic, for example, asks users to distinguish between Claude’s standard chat experience and Cowork. ChatGPT similarly separates Chat and Work. For consumers, these distinctions can turn what should be a simple interaction into a question about which product or mode to use.

That approach is largely driven by how AI systems are built, rather than by how people naturally think about using them.

Apple Takes A Different Approach

Apple’s strategy for Siri offers a contrasting model. Rather than requiring users to learn a new AI interface, the company is integrating AI capabilities into tools people already use, including Spotlight, Photos, the camera and voice requests.

That approach could prove more effective as AI becomes a mainstream consumer technology. Users do not necessarily need to understand which model, agent or feature is handling a request; they simply need the system to complete the task.

Text-Based AI Offers A Simpler Model

The popularity of text-based AI assistants points in the same direction. Services such as Poke, Ollie, Lindy, Orchid, Lucas, Folk, Tomo and Instinct largely reduce the interaction to a familiar interface: send a message and let the assistant determine what needs to happen next.

That simplicity removes an additional layer of decision-making. Users do not need to choose between Chat, an agent or a specialised feature before asking for help.

As a16z investment partner Justine Moore recently argued, consumers increasingly want an AI assistant to feel like a contact they can message rather than another application they must learn.

For Google and its competitors, the challenge may therefore be less about adding capabilities and more about hiding the complexity behind them. The AI that wins mainstream adoption may ultimately be the one that asks users to understand the least.

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