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World Bank Forecasts Global Economy To Grow 2.7% In 2025 And 2026, Marking A Period Of Stabilization

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 17, 2025

The global economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, maintaining the same pace as in 2024, according to the latest report from the World Bank. This steady growth signals a phase of stabilization, with inflation and interest rates expected to gradually decrease.

For developing economies, growth is expected to remain resilient over the next two years, holding steady at around 4%. However, this growth is still constrained compared to pre-pandemic levels, raising concerns about the ongoing challenge of poverty reduction and broader development goals.

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The World Bank highlighted that developing economies, which account for 60% of global growth, are likely to conclude the first quarter of the 21st century with the weakest long-term growth prospects since 2000. The first decade of the century saw remarkable growth, but the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, along with other global challenges, has slowed down progress.

Economic integration has weakened, as foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and GDP share in developing economies are now roughly half of what they were in the early 2000s. Meanwhile, global trade restrictions have surged in 2024, with new barriers reaching five times the average of the 2010-2019 period. As a result, global economic growth has diminished, dropping from 5.9% in the 2000s to 5.1% in the 2010s, and now to 3.5% in the 2020s.

In a statement, Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, expressed concern over the future challenges facing developing economies: “The next 25 years will be tougher than the last 25. Most of the factors that once boosted their rise have faded. In their place, we now face tough headwinds: high debt, weak investment, slow productivity growth, and the escalating costs of climate change.”

The report also noted the potential impact of US President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to implement a 10% tariff across a wide range of imports. This could further hinder an already sluggish global economic recovery.

However, there is still hope for stronger-than-expected growth if the world’s largest economies, particularly the US and China, regain momentum.

The increasing importance of developing economies is evident in the shifting global economic landscape. Developing nations now represent 45% of global GDP, up from just 25% in 2000. This growth is largely driven by rapid urbanization, industrialization, and technology adoption in regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Key factors fueling this expansion include the rise of the middle class, infrastructure development, and an expanding services sector. The World Bank reports that more than 40% of exports from developing economies now go to other developing nations, a significant increase from 20% in 2000. Additionally, these countries are becoming crucial sources of capital flows, remittances, and development aid to others.

M Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, emphasized that developing economies must adopt bold, innovative policies to capitalize on new opportunities for cross-border cooperation amid a landscape shaped by policy uncertainty and escalating trade tensions.

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European Central Bank Report Highlights Stable Inflation and Economic Outlook

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

October 29, 2025

Overview Of Inflation Trends

The latest European Central Bank survey shows a slight decline in median inflation expectations over the next 12 months, decreasing from 2.8% in August to 2.7% in September. Despite this minor adjustment, consumer perceptions of past 12-month inflation have held steady at 3.1% for the eighth consecutive month. Long-term projections for three- and five-year inflation remain stable at 2.5% and 2.2% respectively.

Consumer Expectations Drive Income And Spending Projections

Across the board, expectations for nominal income growth over the upcoming year have remained consistent at 1.1%. However, there is a noticeable shift in spending behavior: while perceived nominal spending growth for the past year slipped slightly to 4.9% from 5.0%, expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months rose to 3.5%. Notably, lower income groups continue to forecast marginally higher spending increases compared to their higher income counterparts.

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Stability In Economic And Labour Market Outlook

Economic growth expectations are modestly pessimistic, with respondents forecasting a contraction of -1.2% over the next 12 months. Concurrently, anticipated unemployment levels remain unchanged at 10.7% a year ahead, though the outlook varies by income, with lower income households expecting unemployment rates as high as 12.7%, while higher income groups maintain expectations around 9.4%. Overall, the slight difference between current and future unemployment suggests a broadly stable labor market outlook.

Housing Market And Credit Conditions

The survey also reveals an upswing in expectations related to the housing market. Home price growth expectations have edged higher to 3.5%, and anticipated mortgage interest rates have risen modestly to 4.6%. Similar to other metrics, expectations vary by income, with lower income households expecting higher mortgage rates. In recent months, a marginal decline in reported credit tightening over the past 12 months contrasts with a renewed forecast of tighter credit conditions in the forthcoming year.

Conclusion

The ECB’s latest findings underscore the delicate balance between stable long-term economic forecasts and short-term adjustments in consumer expectations. The slight dips in inflation expectations, alongside stable perceptions of past inflation, delineate a marketplace that is both cautious and measured. As income, spending, and housing market metrics continue to evolve, these indicators provide critical insights for policymakers and investors navigating an increasingly complex economic landscape.