As artificial intelligence reshapes the labour market, women could once again bear a disproportionate share of the disruption. History shows that technological change can eliminate established jobs while creating new opportunities, but the transition is rarely experienced equally.

A Familiar Pattern In A New Technology Cycle

Women may be particularly exposed because administrative, clerical and routine information-processing roles, traditionally dominated by female workers, are among those most vulnerable to automation.

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“AI is focused on routine tasks and numbers and finding patterns, and those types of jobs are the clerical, administrative jobs that a lot of women hold,” said Ariane Hegewisch, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Women’s Policy Research. “It’s still 90% of secretaries and clerical workers who are women.”

In March, the International Labour Organization concluded that nearly one in 10 women in high-income countries work in an occupation facing the highest risk from AI.

The Telephone Switchboard Shock

In the 1940s, women accounted for nearly 95% of America’s telephone operators. The relatively well-paid but demanding job required months of training to handle hundreds of calls per hour.

AT&T’s introduction of automated telephone switching transformed the industry, eliminating an estimated 75,000 operator jobs. Economists James Feigenbaum of Boston University and Daniel P. Gross of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business examined the consequences using census and payroll data.

“The effect of this shock on incumbent operators was to dispossess many of their jobs and careers,” they wrote. Many workers moved into lower-paid jobs or left the labour force.

Economist David Autor says technological change can leave workers with skills tied to occupations that suddenly become obsolete. Because many people build their careers around one profession, displacement can mean moving into less desirable work.

Younger workers entering the labour market after the switchboard transition often found comparable jobs elsewhere, however. The experience illustrates how new opportunities can emerge even as established roles disappear.

Household Technology Expanded Paid Work

While automated switchboards eliminated a category of female-dominated employment, household appliances helped women devote more time to paid work. Economists including Jeremy Greenwood described appliances as “engines of liberation” because they reduced the hours spent on unpaid domestic labour.

Between 1950 and 1980, the number of employed women in the US rose by more than 25 million, while female labour force participation increased from 34% to 52%. Over the same period, 16 million more men found jobs, despite a slight decline in the male participation rate.

Changing gender norms, rising household wealth and the expansion of service industries also contributed to this growth. For the AI era, the question is whether new jobs will emerge quickly enough to absorb workers displaced by automation.

Personal Computers Transformed Office Work

Before personal computers became widespread, women dominated office administration. The 1980 US census recorded nearly 4.7 million secretaries, stenographers and typists, more than 98% of whom were women.

IBM introduced its personal computer in 1981, followed shortly by Microsoft Word. Executives could increasingly prepare their own documents, arrange travel and type memos, reducing the need for some clerical roles.

Yet computers also helped workers become more productive. Women who adapted to the technology could increase their value to employers, showing that automation can eliminate particular tasks while creating new advantages for those who use the tools effectively.

A 2022 paper by Marcus Dillender and Eliza Forsythe found that companies adopting software for office and administrative work saw employment in the sector fall by 1%, while wages for college graduates rose by 3%.

What AI Means For The Next Generation

Women today are, on average, more educated than in previous technological upheavals and more likely to hold managerial and professional positions. However, AI could reach beyond repetitive work into more complex tasks previously considered difficult to automate.

For businesses, it offers opportunities to increase productivity. For workers, it creates uncertainty, particularly in occupations where tasks can be digitised, standardised or predicted.

History does not show that technology inevitably harms women more than men. It does show that women have often been overrepresented in jobs exposed to automation. New opportunities sometimes follow, but not always quickly enough to prevent job losses or downward career moves.

AI may ultimately create more work than it destroys. The challenge will be ensuring that its benefits and costs are not distributed unevenly.