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Why Cyprus Savers Saw Smaller Gains From ECB Rate Hikes

Banks in Cyprus were among the slowest in the euro area to raise deposit rates after the European Central Bank increased interest rates, according to a new ECB working paper examining deposit pricing between 2007 and 2024.

The findings place Cyprus alongside several southern European economies where savers benefited less from higher interest rates than customers in northern Europe, highlighting significant differences in how ECB monetary policy reached households across the currency union.

Deposit Rates Did Not Rise Equally Across Europe

The researchers found that banks in southern euro area countries generally passed on a smaller share of ECB rate increases to depositors than their counterparts in the north.

While monetary policy is set centrally by the ECB, its effects on savers varied widely between countries. The paper concludes that those differences were driven less by banks themselves than by the behaviour of depositors.

Why Banks Could Keep Deposit Rates Lower

According to the study, the biggest shift came after the ECB began raising interest rates in 2022.

Customers most sensitive to higher returns increasingly moved their savings into term deposits, money market funds and other interest-bearing products. Those who kept their money in overnight accounts were generally less likely to switch providers or actively seek higher rates, giving banks greater flexibility in setting deposit prices.

The researchers argue that this change in depositor behaviour played a larger role than differences in banking competition.

The Legacy Of Negative Interest Rates

Years of negative ECB interest rates also shaped how households and businesses managed their savings.

With few attractive alternatives available between 2014 and 2022, most depositors kept money in overnight accounts. Once rates started rising, wealthier households and businesses, which typically respond more quickly to changes in returns, shifted into higher-yield savings products.

Businesses proved more responsive to interest rate changes than households. Among consumers, savers in higher-income northern European countries were also more likely to move funds in search of better returns than those in lower-income southern economies, including Cyprus.

Banks Retained Strong Pricing Power

The study suggests banks maintained substantial pricing power throughout the rate-hiking cycle, allowing them to keep much of the benefit from higher interest rates rather than passing it on to depositors.

Researchers estimate that if all savers had been equally willing to move their money in search of better returns, overnight deposit rates would have been significantly higher, particularly during the ECB’s 2022–2024 tightening cycle.

That finding reinforces the paper’s central conclusion: depositor behaviour, rather than limited banking competition, was the main reason deposit rates rose more slowly than policy rates.

What It Means For Cyprus

For Cyprus, the findings illustrate why deposit rates remained relatively subdued despite one of the fastest monetary tightening cycles in the ECB’s history.

More broadly, the study suggests that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends not only on central bank decisions but also on how willing households and businesses are to actively manage their savings. Improving financial literacy and increasing awareness of alternative savings products, the authors argue, could strengthen competition for deposits and improve the transmission of future interest-rate changes.

Retail’s AI Push Faces A Cybersecurity And Regulatory Reality Check

Artificial intelligence is becoming a strategic priority for retailers, with 80% of retail leaders planning to increase investment in the technology, according to EY’s latest CEO Outlook Survey. However, growing concerns over cybersecurity, customer privacy and regulation could complicate adoption across an industry already facing inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and changing consumer expectations.

Confidence In AI Comes With Risks

The survey found that 80% of retail leaders are confident in their ability to expand the responsible use of AI and customer data. Retailers are increasingly applying the technology to demand forecasting, inventory management, customer service and personalised marketing, seeking to improve efficiency and respond more quickly to market changes.

Yet adoption brings new vulnerabilities. EY found that 24% of retail leaders identified cybersecurity and data privacy as a leading business risk for the year ahead. Retailers manage sensitive customer information, payment systems and complex supply chains, making effective security and governance essential as AI becomes more deeply embedded in their operations.

The World Economic Forum’s Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2026 highlights the wider challenge: 87% of organisations reported rising cyber risks linked to AI vulnerabilities, while 94% expected malicious AI to have a significant impact on cybersecurity in 2026.

Regulation Will Shape AI Adoption

Regulatory frameworks are also influencing how quickly retailers can expand their use of AI. The European Union’s AI Act, China’s state-led governance model and measures introduced by individual US states are shaping the rules around the technology.

For retailers, compliance is becoming a strategic consideration, particularly for customer-facing applications that use personal data to personalise offers, automate interactions or analyse consumer behaviour. Regulatory missteps could carry significant costs in a sector where customer trust is critical.

EY Outlines Four Possible Futures

EY recommends that retailers plan for multiple outcomes rather than assume the current investment boom will continue uninterrupted. Its analysis draws on a four-scenario framework developed by Jim Dator of the University of Hawaii.

One scenario envisages constrained AI adoption as economic pressures, regulation, cyberattacks, legacy systems and poor data quality limit progress. Retailers in this environment may prioritise lower-risk back-office applications, such as finance, procurement, inventory and logistics, while customer-facing tools face resistance.

A second scenario anticipates continued growth, with sustained investment and widespread adoption. A third envisages deeper economic and social transformation as technology reshapes business operations. The fourth considers systemic breakdown, in which a small number of technology platforms control access to AI models and charge premium prices, potentially making advanced capabilities less accessible even to large retailers.

Governance Will Determine Competitive Advantage

EY’s findings suggest that investment alone will not determine which retailers benefit most from AI. Companies will also need robust cybersecurity, effective governance and strategies that can adapt to different economic, technological and regulatory conditions.

For a sector operating on tight margins, the challenge is to turn AI investment into lasting business value while managing the risks that come with greater dependence on the technology.

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