Airline tickets may become more expensive as volatility in global energy markets drives up the cost of jet fuel. Major carriers have warned that, without a positive shift in the conflict involving the United States and Iran, further fare increases may be difficult to avoid.

Higher operating costs could gradually be passed on to passengers, said Maria Kouroupi, director of aviation development and communications at Hermes Airports, in comments to Sigma TV. Travelers are already facing sharply higher fares than a year ago, prompting some to seek cheaper itineraries—even when that means taking multiple connecting flights.

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Fuel Costs Put Airlines Under Pressure

Attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran began in late February. Although initially expected to last only a few weeks, the conflict has continued for about eight months, contributing to instability in international oil markets.

Fuel is typically one of an airline’s largest operating expenses, accounting for roughly 25% to 30% of total costs. During an energy crisis, that share can rise to between 31% and 35%, putting significant pressure on airline finances.

Some Fares Have Climbed More Than 39% In A Year

Airfares have risen by more than 39% in some cases over the past year, while increases compared with two years ago have approached 50%.

Recent analysis by aviation data company Cirium found that low-cost carriers recorded the steepest increases in economy fares. Compared with May 2025, their fares were up 39.20%; since early 2024, they had more than doubled. Fares at Europe’s three major airline groups—Lufthansa, IAG and Air France-KLM—were 48.41% higher than at the start of 2024.

How Much Of The Cost Will Reach Passengers?

Airfares are shaped by demand, supply and competition, Kouroupi said. Rising costs for airlines may therefore lead to a gradual transfer of some expenses to passengers. For now, she noted, stronger market performance appears to be absorbing part of the pressure, with travel activity across Europe increasing.

That cushion may not last. European carriers have warned that higher fuel costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East could weaken their financial outlook, while fares are expected to move higher next year.

Fuel Hedging Could Offer Less Protection

One factor is the gradual expiration of fuel-hedging contracts—agreements that help airlines manage exposure to price swings. As those arrangements run their course, carriers may become more directly exposed to market rates, according to Reuters.

German airline group Lufthansa said it expects its 2026 fuel bill to be €2 billion higher than last year, reaching €9.3 billion. That is €600 million above its previous estimate. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary, speaking recently to CNBC, warned that European airfares could rise by as much as 20% next year.

For travelers, the outlook will depend on how long fuel-market volatility persists, how much of the additional cost airlines can absorb and whether competition limits their ability to raise fares. But with fuel among the industry’s largest expenses and hedging protection gradually falling away, further increases are becoming a more prominent risk.