Where in Europe Will House Prices Rise the Most in 2025?

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 3, 2025

House prices across Europe are set to continue climbing in 2025, propelled by an ongoing supply-demand imbalance. While most countries will see growth, France stands out as an exception, with prices expected to dip temporarily due to affordability issues and political uncertainties. Fitch Ratings’ housing and mortgage outlook for 2025 predicts that nominal home prices will rise in the low to mid-single digits in most countries over the next two years.

Top European Markets to Watch

Netherlands: House price growth is projected to slow from the current 13% to 8%-10% in 2025, and 6%-8% in 2026. This still represents one of the fastest growth rates globally, driven by a limited housing supply due to rising material and labour costs. Population growth and shrinking household sizes further fuel demand. Government programmes aimed at supporting first-time buyers could also boost the market, although tighter fiscal policies may temper purchasing power.
Spain: House prices are expected to increase by 4%-6% in 2025 compared to 2024, with further growth of 5%-7% anticipated in 2026. Falling interest rates and improving consumer confidence are key drivers, while the housing shortage remains acute, with new construction meeting only half the needs of new household formations.
Germany: Modest growth of 2%-4% is forecast for both 2025 and 2026, up from Fitch’s estimate of 1.5% for 2024. Rising rents are making homeownership increasingly attractive, despite moderate wage growth limiting affordability.
UK: House prices are predicted to grow by 2%-4% in 2025 and 2026. Declining mortgage rates and strong labour market conditions will support the market, with lenders pricing in policy rates reaching 3.5% in 2025.
Denmark: Similar to the UK, house prices in Denmark are expected to rise by 2%-4% in 2025 and 2026, driven by lower interest rates and moderate growth in disposable income.
Italy: Slower growth of 0.5%-2.5% is expected in 2025 and 2026. High mortgage rates are dampening demand, while most transactions involve older properties rather than new builds, contributing to limited price increases.

Key Drivers of Price Growth

Limited Supply: High land, labour, and material costs, along with regulatory barriers, are restricting new housing developments in most markets.
Improved Economic Conditions: Low unemployment, real wage growth, and easing inflation are leaving consumers with more disposable income, driving demand.
Falling Mortgage Rates: Fitch Ratings expects mortgage rates to decline to around 2.5% over the next two years, which will enhance affordability for buyers.

Market Exceptions and Challenges

France: House prices are expected to decline in 2025 due to strained affordability and political uncertainties. However, the pace of decline will slow compared to 2024, and prices are projected to rebound in 2026 as the market stabilises.
Climate and Regulatory Concerns: Flood risks and EU regulations promoting sustainable construction practices could influence market dynamics, increasing costs while boosting demand for energy-efficient homes.

Global Perspective and Risks

Globally, the strongest home price growth is forecast in the Netherlands, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico. In these markets, factors such as government programmes for first-time buyers and rising construction costs are key drivers.

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Despite the expected growth, Fitch warns that unexpected economic challenges, such as higher-than-expected inflation or weaker household income, could disrupt these trends. Rising property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs may also deter potential buyers.

Europe’s housing market in 2025 will be shaped by the interplay of supply constraints, economic conditions, and regulatory factors. For buyers, investors, and policymakers, staying attuned to these trends will be crucial in navigating an increasingly competitive landscape.

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Europe’s Deadly Summer Heat Exposed The Cost Of A Warming Continent

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

October 23, 2026

Europe experienced its deadliest summer for heat-related deaths on record in 2026, with an estimated 24,400 excess deaths linked to extreme temperatures across 30 countries. Researchers estimate that human-induced climate change was responsible for around 32,000 of the deaths attributed to heat in the study’s broader analysis, accounting for 65% of the total.

The findings highlight the growing public-health consequences of global warming, largely driven by fossil fuel use, as extreme heat becomes more frequent and severe.

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A Summer Of Dangerous Heat

Between June and August, heatwaves pushed temperatures in Western Europe to an average of 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 norm, with some days reaching 12°C above average. Nearly a third of estimated heat-related deaths occurred during a particularly intense heatwave between 17 June and 1 July.

“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health,” said Dr Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.

The estimated toll exceeded previous peaks of around 29,000 deaths in summer 2022 and 28,000 in 2003 across the region studied.

How Researchers Estimated The Toll

Researchers modelled the relationship between temperature and mortality across 854 urban areas in the EU, UK, Norway and Switzerland, covering around 40% of the population in the 30 countries studied.

The analysis incorporated temperature records, age, socioeconomic conditions, environmental factors and access to healthcare. By comparing actual temperatures with those expected without human-induced warming, the team estimated the additional deaths attributable to climate change.

Final official mortality figures for summer 2026 are not yet available in many countries, and heat-related deaths are often underreported because their effects can be difficult to identify directly.

Older People Face The Greatest Risk

People aged 85 and over accounted for roughly half of the estimated deaths. However, the impact extended across age groups, with around 800 excess deaths among adults aged 20–44 and approximately 6,000 among people under 65.

Southern Europe experienced the highest mortality burden, reflecting hotter temperatures and other vulnerabilities, including air pollution, limited green space and unequal access to healthcare and heat-alert systems.

Italy, France And Spain Record Highest Toll

Italy recorded an estimated 13,303 heat-related excess deaths, followed by France with 7,268 and Spain with 6,824. Germany recorded around 6,340, while the UK saw an estimated 4,354 deaths.

In the UK, the heat also placed significant pressure on healthcare services. Andrew Hartle, Professor of Practice of Anaesthesia at Imperial College Healthcare, said demand during the summer resembled that of a severe winter virus season.

Cities Urged To Strengthen Heat Protection

Researchers say cities can reduce the risks through climate shelters, external shading and building retrofits, alongside measures to help residents avoid exposure during the hottest hours. Checking on vulnerable people, staying hydrated and following heat alerts are also important.

The researchers stress that adaptation must go hand in hand with reducing fossil fuel use to limit further warming. The findings underline that extreme heat is already a major public-health threat across Europe, with thousands of lives at risk each summer.

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