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Wall Street’s Outlook For The S&P 500 In 2025: Strong Growth Expected

Wall Street analysts are projecting continued strong returns for the S&P 500 in 2025, with most major banks forecasting a third consecutive year of impressive performance for the index, which tracks the 500 largest public U.S. companies. Investors are buoyed by the ongoing bull market, which is expected to continue into the next year.

Key Predictions

  • Bank of America: The bank expects the S&P 500 to reach 6,666 by the end of 2025, marking a 10% increase from its current level of 6,050. Analysts, led by Savita Subramanian, attribute this growth to favorable macroeconomic factors, including lower interest rates, increased labor productivity, and a corporate environment of rising profits. Subramanian adds that “the average stock is more attractive than the entire index.”
  • BMO Capital Markets: This Canadian institution predicts the S&P 500 will hit 6,700 points by year-end, implying an 11% growth. Chief strategist Brian Belsky notes that earnings growth is currently undervalued, and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve should support further gains.
  • Deutsche Bank: Setting the highest target on Wall Street, Deutsche Bank forecasts a 16% rise, predicting the S&P 500 will end 2025 at 7,000 points. Strategists, including Binky Chadha, suggest that increased capital spending outside of big tech, a global economic recovery, and rising M&A activity will contribute to this strong performance.
  • Evercore ISI: Focusing on technology, Evercore predicts 6,600 points by mid-2025. Strategists led by Julian Emanuel believe the bull market is “still in its infancy,” signaling the potential for ongoing growth.
  • Goldman Sachs: With a target of 6,500 points (+9%), Goldman Sachs anticipates continued U.S. economic expansion and an 11% increase in earnings per share, driving market growth.
  • Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley also sets a target of 6,500 points but provides a broader range of potential outcomes, from a bullish scenario of 7,400 points (+26%) to a bearish scenario of 4,600 points (-28%).
  • UBS: Forecasting 6,600 points by the end of 2025, UBS expects a 10% gain, bolstered by the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, which has accelerated positive market sentiment.
  • Yardeni Research: This independent firm is even more optimistic, predicting the S&P 500 will reach 7,000 points by the end of 2025, reflecting a 19% increase. Yardeni’s forecast is rooted in the potential economic benefits of a “Trump 2.0” administration.

Big Number

Yardeni Research also predicts that the S&P 500 could climb as high as 10,000 by 2029, anticipating a strong annualized return of 16%.

Key Story

The S&P 500 is on track for a 27% year-to-date gain, surpassing its 23% rise in 2023. This would mark the first time the index has gained at least 20% in two consecutive years since the internet boom between 1995 and 1998. With a 58% rise since the end of 2022, the S&P is poised for its best two-year performance since the late 1990s.

Much of the recent growth has been driven by major tech companies like Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla, which have each seen over 150% growth since the end of 2022, defying the pressures of a high-interest rate environment.

Electric Vehicle Leaders Urge EU To Maintain 2035 Zero Emission Mandate

Industry Voices Emphasize the Importance of Commitment

Over 150 key figures from Europe’s electric car sector, including executives from Volvo Cars and Polestar, have signed a letter urging the European Union to adhere to its ambitious 2035 zero emission goal for cars and vans. These industry leaders warn that any deviation could hamper the progress of Europe’s burgeoning EV market, inadvertently strengthen global competitors, and weaken investor confidence.

Evolving Perspectives Within the Automotive Community

This call comes in the wake of a contrasting appeal issued at the end of August by heads of European automobile manufacturers’ and automotive suppliers’ associations. That letter, endorsed by the CEO of Mercedes-Benz, Ola Kaellenius, argued that a 100 percent emission reduction target may no longer be practical for cars by 2035.

Discussion With EU Leadership on The Horizon

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to meet with automotive industry leaders on September 12 to deliberate the future of the sector. Facing stiff challenges such as the rise of Chinese competition and the implications of US tariffs, the stakes for the EU’s policy decisions have never been higher.

Potential Risks of Eroding Ambitious Targets

Industry leaders like Michael Lohscheller, CEO of Polestar, caution that any weakening of the targets could undermine climate objectives and compromise Europe’s competitive edge in the global market. Michiel Langzaal, chief executive of EU charging provider Fastned, further highlighted that investments in charging infrastructure and software development are predicated on the certainty of these targets.

Regulatory Compliance And The Mercedes-Benz Exception

A report from transport research and campaign group T&E indicates that nearly all European carmakers, with the exception of Mercedes-Benz, are positioned to meet CO₂ regulation requirements for the 2025-2027 period. To avoid potential penalties, Mercedes must now explore cooperation with partners such as Volvo Cars and Polestar.

Conclusion

The industry’s unified stance underscores the critical balance between environmental aspirations and maintaining competitive advantage. With high-level discussions imminent, the EU’s forthcoming decisions will be pivotal in shaping not only the future of the continent’s automotive sector but also its global positioning in the race towards sustainable mobility.

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