Ukraine Secures Preliminary Agreement For $20 Billion Debt Restructuring

In a significant development, Ukraine has reached a preliminary agreement with creditors to restructure $20 billion of international bonds. Announced on Monday, this move aims to stabilise the war-torn nation’s economy amid ongoing conflict with Russia.

The agreement comes just a week before the expiration of a two-year debt payment suspension arranged in 2022. Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko highlighted the importance of this deal for maintaining fiscal stability and funding defence efforts.

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The proposal involves a 37% nominal haircut on Ukraine’s outstanding international bonds, saving Kyiv $11.4 billion over the next three years, aligning with its IMF programme set to conclude in 2027. This agreement is a historic first, occurring during an active full-scale war.

Economic Impact and Strategic Significance

The restructuring plan is critical as Ukraine’s economy has been severely affected by the prolonged conflict with Russia, which began with the invasion in 2022. The war has decimated the country’s economic infrastructure, leading to heavy reliance on international financial and military assistance.

The deal is designed to preserve Ukraine’s budgetary stability and ensure the availability of cash reserves necessary to sustain its defence and other essential expenditures. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Group of Creditors of Ukraine (GCU) have endorsed the agreement, confirming its compliance with the $122 billion support package framework.

Political and Economic Context

The timing of this agreement is particularly pertinent, given the upcoming U.S. presidential elections in November. A potential shift in U.S. policy, especially under a Trump administration, could affect the continuity of support for Ukraine. This has intensified the urgency for securing a stable financial future through debt restructuring.

Future Prospects

This preliminary agreement marks a pivotal step towards economic recovery and stability for Ukraine. It underscores the resilience of the nation’s financial strategies amid unprecedented challenges. The deal also sets a precedent for debt restructuring during wartime, reflecting Ukraine’s determination to navigate its fiscal crises effectively.

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Cyprus Hits Historic Tourism Peak As Overtourism Risks Mount

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

February 13, 2026

Record-Breaking Performance In Tourism

Cyprus’ tourism sector achieved unprecedented success in 2025 with record-breaking arrivals and revenues. According to Eurobank analyst Konstantinos Vrachimis, the island’s performance was underpinned by solid real income growth and enhanced market diversification.

Robust Growth In Arrivals And Revenues

Total tourist arrivals reached 4.5 million in 2025, rising 12.2% from 4 million in 2024, with momentum sustained through the final quarter. Tourism receipts for the January–November period climbed to €3.6 billion, marking a 15.3% year-on-year increase that exceeded inflation. The improvement was not driven by volume alone. Average expenditure per visitor increased by 4.6%, while daily spending rose by 9.2%, indicating stronger purchasing power and higher-value tourism activity.

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Economic Impact And Diversification Of Source Markets

The stronger performance translated into tangible gains for the broader services economy, lifting real tourism-related income and overall sector turnover. Demand patterns are also shifting. While the United Kingdom remains Cyprus’ largest source market, its relative share has moderated as arrivals from Israel, Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Austria, and Poland have expanded. This gradual diversification reduces dependency on a single market and strengthens resilience against external shocks.

Enhanced Air Connectivity And Seasonal Dynamics

Air connectivity has improved markedly in 2025, with flight volumes expanding substantially compared to 2019. This expansion is driven by increased airline capacity, enhanced route coverage, and more frequent flights, supporting demand during shoulder seasons and reducing overreliance on peak-month flows. Seasonal patterns remain prominent, with arrivals building through the spring and peaking in summer, thereby bolstering employment, fiscal receipts, and corporate earnings across hospitality, transport, and retail sectors.

Structural Risks And Future Considerations

Despite strong headline figures, structural challenges remain. The European Commission’s EU Tourism Dashboard highlights tourism intensity, seasonality, and market concentration as key risk indicators. Cyprus records a high ratio of overnight stays relative to its resident population, signalling potential overtourism pressures. Continued reliance on a limited group of origin markets also exposes the sector to geopolitical uncertainty and sudden demand swings. Seasonal peaks place additional strain on infrastructure, housing availability, labour supply, and natural resources, particularly water.

Strategic Investment And Market Resilience

Vrachimis concludes that sustained growth will depend on targeted investment, product upgrading, and continued market diversification. Strengthening year-round offerings, improving infrastructure capacity, and promoting higher-value experiences can help balance demand while preserving long-term competitiveness. These measures are essential not only to manage overtourism risks but also to ensure tourism remains a stable pillar of Cyprus’ economic development.

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