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UK Business Creation Drops To Lowest Rate Since 2010, Raising Economic Concerns

The United Kingdom witnessed its slowest rate of new business creation in over a decade last year, signalling potential challenges for long-term economic growth and productivity. Official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), released Monday, showed that 316,000 businesses were started in 2023, a decline from 337,000 in 2022. This dropped the “business birth rate” — the percentage of new businesses relative to the total number of active businesses — to 11.0%, its lowest level since 2010.  

Business closures also decreased, with 309,000 shutting down in 2023 compared to 349,000 in 2022, reducing the “business death rate” to 10.8%, the lowest since 2020.  

Economists warn that declining rates of both business creation and closure could negatively impact productivity and innovation. Established businesses often struggle to adopt new technologies or innovate at the same pace as startups.  

The ONS recently reported that UK output per hour worked in Q3 2024 was 1.8% lower than a year earlier, with just a 2.0% cumulative increase since the COVID-19 pandemic began. These figures, tied to productivity stagnation, may see revisions as new population data becomes available.  

However, there was a positive trend in high-growth businesses. The proportion of firms with at least 10 employees that expanded their workforce by 20% annually for three consecutive years rose to 4.7% in 2023, the highest in five years.  

The newly elected Labour government has pledged to make the UK a leader in per-capita economic growth among G7 countries. However achieving this goal may require addressing barriers to business growth and encouraging entrepreneurship beyond small-scale startups, which often have limited productivity impacts unless they scale up.  

While the hospitality sector remains a key area for new businesses, the broader startup ecosystem’s growth will be essential to strengthening the UK economy in the years ahead.

Bitcoin Surges 23% In A Week As Investor Optimism Returns

Bitcoin was on track for a weekly gain of around 23% on Friday as a series of positive macroeconomic and policy developments boosted investor sentiment.

The cryptocurrency was trading about 6% higher at roughly $77,000, up from around $62,800 at the start of the week. Crypto-related stocks also rallied, with Coinbase and Circle gaining more than 9%, while Strategy rose 7%.

Macro Factors Fuel Rally

Bitcoin’s latest surge began Wednesday after Treasury yields fell sharply following a major intervention by the U.S. Treasury in the bond market. Lower yields eased pressure on risk assets and helped trigger a broader move into cryptocurrencies.

The rally was further amplified by a major short squeeze. Around $2.7 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated, according to CoinGlass.

Max Stuedlein, head of Partnerships at Sygnum APAC, said the move reflected an alignment of macroeconomic and policy catalysts, including the Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated government debt.

Clarity Act Boosts Sentiment

Investor confidence improved further on Thursday as the White House and crypto industry leaders made a final push to advance the Clarity Act in the coming weeks.

The legislation is widely viewed as a potential catalyst for the crypto market, although its chances of passing remain relatively limited.

Despite the rally, bitcoin remains well below its 2026 high of $94,820 reached in January and its all-time high of $126,198, set last October.

Analysts See More Volatility Ahead

Lucy Gazmararian, founder and managing partner at Token Bay Capital, said the crypto market may be approaching the end of its bear cycle.

She expects bitcoin could experience one more decline of around 20% before the market turns, pointing to historical cycles and the recent liquidation of heavily leveraged short positions.

Gazmararian also described bitcoin as a long-term hedge against monetary debasement, while warning that its short-term price remains highly volatile and driven by market cycles.

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