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UK Business Confidence Plummets Amid Post-Budget Fallout

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 7, 2025

British businesses faced a rocky December as economic growth nearly stalled, and job cuts surged at the fastest rate in nearly four years, a reflection of shaken confidence following the government’s October budget.

The latest S&P Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the UK edged down to 50.4 in December, barely clinging above the crucial 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction. This was the lowest reading since October 2023 and just a hair below November’s 50.5, reinforcing concerns about the country’s economic trajectory.

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Budget Blues Weigh Heavy

The slowdown follows Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ budget announcement on October 30, which introduced hefty tax hikes for businesses to finance increased public spending. The impact has been profound, with a slump in corporate morale reverberating through the economy. According to recent data, Britain’s economy stagnated in the three months leading up to September. The Bank of England’s forecast of flatlining growth in the final quarter of 2024 appears to align with these PMI figures.

Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, highlighted the persistent gloom:
“December saw no improvement in business optimism following the budget, with growth expectations for the year ahead stuck at November’s 23-month low.”

Job Cuts Hit Hard

Companies slashed jobs at a rate not seen since January 2021, during the height of COVID-19 lockdowns. Rising costs, including a looming increase in employer social insurance contributions set for April, were the main driver of these cuts, according to S&P Global. Nearly one in four firms reported a reduction in payroll, marking the sharpest decline in over 15 years outside of pandemic conditions.

Costs Climb, Optimism Fades

The PMI’s measure of future output hit its lowest point since December 2022, mirroring the uncertainty sparked by former Prime Minister Liz Truss’ “mini-budget.” Meanwhile, input costs for businesses rose at their fastest pace since April, squeezing margins further.

Sectors across the board felt the strain. December’s services PMI, a significant contributor to the composite index, was revised down to 51.1 from an earlier estimate of 51.4. Manufacturing fared even worse, with its PMI dropping to an 11-month low of 47.0, down from an initial 47.3.

Looking Ahead

While business groups have criticised the budget’s immediate impact, some economists believe increased government spending could provide a short-term boost to the economy in 2025. For now, however, companies are grappling with an increasingly challenging environment, where rising costs and regulatory pressures continue to erode confidence.

This ongoing turbulence leaves many questioning how long UK businesses can tread water in such stormy conditions.

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EU Farm Output Prices Decline For The First Time In Nine Months

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

March 12, 2026

EU Market Adjustments Signal New Price Trends

Agricultural output prices across the European Union declined in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a shift after several quarters of increases. Data from Eurostat shows that farm gate prices fell by 1.9% compared with the same period in 2024.

Crisis of Declining Prices In Select Markets

Cyprus recorded one of the more notable decreases in agricultural input costs among EU member states, with prices falling by 2.6% compared with Q4 2024. The reduction eased cost pressures for the local agricultural sector following periods of higher prices earlier in 2025. Across the EU, prices for goods and services consumed in agriculture remained relatively stable. Non-investment inputs such as energy, fertilisers and feedingstuffs showed limited overall changes during the quarter.

Country-Specific Divergence In Price Movements

Eurostat data highlights considerable variation across member states. Fifteen EU countries recorded declines in agricultural output prices. Belgium registered the largest decrease at 12.9%, followed by Lithuania (8.2%) and Germany (6.0%). At the same time, twelve countries reported increases in output prices. Ireland recorded the strongest rise at 6.8%, followed by Slovenia (5.6%) and Malta (4.2%).

Stability In Agricultural Inputs Amid Commodity Shifts

Agricultural input prices also showed mixed developments. Eleven member states recorded declines, including Cyprus (2.6%), Belgium (2.1%) and Sweden (2.0%). Other countries experienced moderate increases, including Lithuania (4.2%), Ireland (3.3%) and Romania (2.5%). Among major agricultural commodities, milk prices declined by 4.1% while cereal prices fell by 8.9% across the EU. In contrast, fertilisers and soil improvers increased by 7.9%, reflecting continued volatility in input markets.

Outlook For EU Agriculture

The latest Eurostat data points to uneven price developments across the EU agricultural sector. While input prices remained broadly stable in many markets, movements in output prices varied significantly between member states. These trends highlight the need for farmers and policymakers to adapt to shifting commodity prices and changing cost structures across the European agricultural market.