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UBS: Optimistic Outlook For Greece And Its Bonds In 2025

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 16, 2025

UBS maintains a bullish perspective on Greek bonds, citing favourable fiscal conditions, manageable refinancing needs, and the potential for further credit upgrades. With the outlook for 2025 looking strong, the Swiss financial institution highlights key factors driving its confidence in Greek government securities and the nation’s economic prospects.

Robust GDP Growth And Recovery Fund Support

UBS projects a 2.8% GDP growth rate for Greece in 2025, surpassing both major Eurozone economies and the region’s average by 70 basis points. This growth is expected to be fuelled by increased disbursements from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), which will reach 4% of GDP in 2025 compared to 2.3% in 2024. With Greece having secured 60% of its total RRF allocation—equivalent to 16% of its GDP—its recovery is less dependent on broader Eurozone dynamics.

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Primary Budget Surplus And Fiscal Strength

Greece is on track to achieve a primary budget surplus of 2.5% of GDP in 2025. UBS attributes this to:

Greece’s likely attainment of the same surplus level in 2024.
Controlled growth in primary expenditure (3.7%), remaining below nominal GDP growth.
An anticipated €500 million boost from anti-tax evasion reforms, following a €1.8 billion gain in 2024.

Debt Management And Refinancing Efforts

The Greek government continues to focus on refinancing its most expensive debt, including the early repayment of Greek Loan Facility (GLF) obligations. These measures have improved the overall cost of servicing public debt, enabling faster debt reduction and maintaining favourable conditions for bond investors.

Resilient Banking Sector

The Greek banking system has shown significant improvement, with non-performing exposures (NPEs) reduced to 4.6%—the lowest since 2002. Additionally, corporate lending has surged to an annual growth rate of 16% by December 2024, partly due to RRF funding.

Limited Financing Needs And Bond Scarcity

UBS highlights Greece’s reduced gross financing needs for 2025, projected at €8 billion—€1.5 billion lower than 2024. This decline reflects improved fiscal balances (-0.1% of GDP deficit in 2025) and lower debt maturities.

Despite a repricing of European bond yields, Greece’s recent 10-year bond issuance achieved record demand, covering 50% of its borrowing programme for 2025. UBS anticipates another issuance in Q2 2025, with a longer duration of 15–20 years. Additionally, the limited net supply of Greek bonds supports their performance.

The European Central Bank (ECB) holds €38 billion of Greek debt in its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) portfolio, comprising 43% of outstanding Greek bonds. With minimal drawdowns expected, Greek bonds will likely retain their scarcity-driven appeal.

Investment Grade Status And Moody’s Prospects

Greece’s return to investment grade in 2024 significantly bolstered its bond market, enabling inclusion in the Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Treasury Bond Index, where it now holds a 1% share. Moody’s and S&P both upgraded Greece’s outlook to positive in late 2024, and UBS foresees Moody’s raising Greece to investment grade in September 2025, further enhancing investor confidence.

UBS’s positive stance on Greek bonds reflects Greece’s robust economic performance, effective fiscal management, and improved credit profile. With strategic debt refinancing, reduced financing needs, and a resilient banking sector, Greece is poised to maintain its upward trajectory in 2025. The nation’s ability to leverage RRF funding and achieve further credit upgrades will be instrumental in shaping its financial future and securing its position as an attractive investment destination.

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Cyprus Still Offers Relative Value As Mediterranean Holiday Costs Rise

Cyprus is not the cheapest holiday destination in the Mediterranean, but it remains more affordable than many of its best-known rivals on two of the costs travellers notice first: hotel accommodation and dining out.

A Competitive Position In A Costly Region

Latest Eurostat data puts Cyprus’s restaurant and accommodation price index at 85.2, against an EU average of 100. That places the island slightly below Spain and Greece, while Slovenia, Croatia, Malta, Italy and France all rank as more expensive destinations.

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Portugal remains the standout value destination in the western Mediterranean, while Albania and Montenegro offer even lower prices further east.

The wider European picture follows a similar pattern. Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia all rank below Cyprus for both overall consumer prices and hospitality costs. Germany, Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands and the Nordic countries are considerably more expensive.

The Broader Cost Of A Holiday

Looking beyond hotels and restaurants, Cyprus also remains cheaper than the EU average across the broader household basket, which includes groceries, clothing, transport and services. Overall prices were 10.8% below the bloc-wide benchmark. The island was less expensive than Spain, Malta, Italy and France, although Greece, Portugal and Croatia recorded even lower overall price levels.

A separate Euronews analysis reinforced that regional picture. It found that North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Serbia and Albania were among Europe’s lowest-priced countries, while Iceland and Switzerland ranked at the opposite end of the scale, alongside several northern and western European economies.

Food bought in shops tells a slightly different story. On that measure, Cyprus sits almost exactly on the European average. Greece, Croatia and Malta all recorded higher grocery prices, while Spain offered slightly better value. The comparison highlights an important point for travellers: the cost of a holiday depends largely on how it is structured. A self-catering family, a couple dining out every evening and an all-inclusive guest are likely to have very different spending experiences in the same destination.

Where Holiday Bills Diverge Most

Some everyday purchases reveal even greater differences. According to the Euronews holiday comparison, alcoholic drinks in Greece were priced 54% above the EU average, while Croatia was more than one-third above the benchmark. Italy was 18.1% below the EU average and Spain 9.9% lower, while France and Portugal remained much closer to the European average.

Soft drinks also varied considerably. Italy recorded the lowest prices in the comparison, at 18.2% below the EU average, while Croatia was 33.5% above it. Seafood prices were more tightly grouped, ranging from 4.6% below the EU average in Portugal to 12.7% above it in Greece.

Transport costs showed a different pattern. France was the only country in the comparison where public transport prices exceeded the EU average. Portugal, Spain and Croatia were around 20% cheaper, while Greece remained just below the European benchmark.