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UAE’s Economic Growth Projected To Stay Strong At 4% In 2025, IMF Reports

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that the UAE will continue to experience robust economic growth, estimating a steady 4% growth in 2025 despite a dip in oil production.

Non-Oil Sector Driving Growth

The IMF highlights that the UAE’s non-hydrocarbon sectors, notably tourism, construction, public spending, and financial services, are propelling this growth. These industries are expected to remain key contributors to the country’s economic momentum in the near future.

Following a recent staff visit to the UAE, the IMF issued a statement discussing the country’s economic outlook, financial developments, and policy priorities. The UAE’s non-oil sector showed impressive performance, as evidenced by a notable rise in the S&P Global UAE Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which hit a nine-month high of 55.4 in December, up from 54.2 in November.

Oil Sector And Inflation Outlook

Despite challenges in oil production, the IMF predicts a 2% growth in the oil sector, influenced by OPEC+ production cuts and the UAE’s cautious approach to increasing its OPEC+ production quota.

Inflation in the UAE is expected to remain manageable at around 2% in 2025, even with rising costs in housing and utilities. The IMF anticipates that capital inflows will continue to be strong, fueled by the country’s pro-business reforms, which should keep demand for real estate high and support price growth across various property segments.

Fiscal And Current Account Surpluses

The IMF projects a slight easing of the UAE’s fiscal surplus, predicting it will decrease to 4% of GDP in 2025, down from an estimated 5% last year. The current account surplus, however, is forecast to remain strong at about 7.5% of GDP. With international reserves still solid, the UAE is well-positioned to cover more than eight and a half months’ worth of imports.

Revenue Outlook

Despite the ongoing volatility in global oil prices, the IMF expects a decline in hydrocarbon revenue, alongside steady growth in non-oil revenues. The country’s implementation of a corporate income tax is expected to provide a consistent revenue stream in the coming years.

In its report, the IMF commended the UAE’s reform initiatives, noting that they play a crucial role in ensuring sustainable medium-term growth while also facilitating the country’s energy transition. The IMF emphasized the importance of a well-planned and sequenced approach to ensure the success of these reforms.

TikTok Returns To US App Stores 

TikTok is once again available for download in the Apple and Google app stores in the US, following a delay in the enforcement of its ban by former President Donald Trump. The ban’s postponement until April 5 gives the administration additional time to evaluate the situation.

Key Developments

The decision to restore TikTok access came after Google and Apple received reassurances from the Trump administration that they would not face legal consequences for reinstating the Chinese-owned app. According to Bloomberg, US Attorney General Pam Bondi sent a letter outlining these guarantees.

In an executive order signed on January 20, Trump instructed the attorney general not to take enforcement action for 75 days, providing time for his administration to determine how to proceed.

Uncertain Future For TikTok In The US

While TikTok is back on the US app stores, its long-term survival remains uncertain. If no deal is reached by early April to address national security concerns, the app may face another shutdown. ByteDance, the parent company, has insisted that TikTok is not for sale.

Legislation And Pressure On ByteDance

The Protecting Americans from Foreign Enemy-Controlled Apps Act, which passed with bipartisan support in Congress, mandates a nationwide ban on TikTok unless ByteDance sells its US operations. This law was signed by President Joe Biden in April of last year.

In late January, the app was briefly removed from US stores following the ban’s activation, impacting over 170 million American users. However, TikTok was restored soon after, following Trump’s intervention in his first hours as president. During that time, he signed an executive order allowing 75 days for a deal that would safeguard national security. Trump also suggested that the US could take a 50% stake in TikTok, a move he believed would keep the app “in good hands.”

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