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Trump’s Tariff Threats Could Hit Europe’s Key Sectors

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

February 14, 2025

In 2023, Europe exported $502 billion worth of goods to the US, with projections indicating this will grow to nearly $606 billion in 2024. However, if Donald Trump’s tariff threats are realized, European exports could face substantial challenges. The biggest risks will affect the healthcare, industrials, and consumer staples sectors, which are expected to contribute over half of the Stoxx Europe 600’s earnings growth this year.

Pharmaceuticals And Automakers Face Major Risks

Pharmaceutical companies are particularly exposed. For instance, Novo Nordisk generates 58% of its revenue from the US, while Sanofi generates almost 50%. The automotive and semiconductor industries will also be heavily impacted. Automakers, who account for 10% of European exports to the US, could suffer from the new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, scheduled to take effect on March 6. Companies like Stellantis, Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz could face a €6 billion ($6.3 billion) hit in operating profits. Volkswagen, for example, relies on Mexico for 65% of its US-bound cars, potentially forcing the company to either ramp up US production or exit the market entirely.

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Industrial Sector At A Disadvantage

The industrial sector is also at risk, especially for companies relying on global supply chains. Further tariffs on machinery and equipment could add to the challenges facing European exporters. A 10% to 20% tariff on pharmaceuticals, cars, machinery, and alcoholic beverages could reduce sales by 1.1% to 2.1% and operating profits by 3.3% to 6.6%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Premium Carmakers Could Weather The Storm

Some premium carmakers, like BMW and Mercedes-Benz, may be better positioned to absorb the additional costs, as their customer base tends to accept price increases. However, many sectors will still face significant strain.

A History Of Negotiations With Trump’s Administration

Europe’s experience with Trump’s trade policies is not new. In 2018, the EU avoided new tariffs through negotiations that included commitments to import more US liquefied natural gas. This experience has helped large industrial companies localize their supply chains to better withstand future challenges. But, with the potential for tariffs in 2025, the outlook remains uncertain. According to Goldman Sachs, S&P 500 companies could see a 2% to 3% drop in earnings per share if tariffs are imposed. This would either reduce profit margins or lead to declining sales as companies pass on the costs to customers.

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EU Moderates Emissions While Sustaining Economic Momentum

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

November 15, 2025

The European Union witnessed a modest decline in greenhouse gas emissions in the second quarter of 2025, as reported by Eurostat. Emissions across the EU registered at 772 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalents, marking a 0.4 percent reduction from 775 million tonnes in the same period of 2024. Concurrently, the EU’s gross domestic product rose by 1.3 percent, reinforcing the ongoing decoupling between economic growth and environmental impact.

Sector-By-Sector Performance

Within the broader statistics on emissions by economic activity, the energy sector—specifically electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply—experienced the most significant drop, declining by 2.9 percent. In comparison, the manufacturing sector and transportation and storage both achieved a 0.4 percent reduction. However, household emissions bucked the trend, increasing by 1.0 percent over the same period.

National Highlights And Notable Exceptions

Among EU member states, 12 reported a reduction in emissions, while 14 saw increases, and Estonia’s figures remained static. Notably, Slovenia, the Netherlands, and Finland recorded the most pronounced declines at 8.6 percent, 5.9 percent, and 4.2 percent respectively. Of the 12 countries reducing emissions, three—Finland, Germany, and Luxembourg—also experienced a contraction in GDP growth.

Dual Achievement: Environmental And Economic Goals

In an encouraging development, nine member states, including Cyprus, managed to lower their emissions while maintaining economic expansion. This dual achievement—reducing environmental impact while fostering economic activity—is a trend that has increasingly influenced EU climate policies. Other nations that successfully balanced these outcomes include Austria, Denmark, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovenia, and Sweden.

Conclusion

As the EU continues to navigate its climate commitments, these quarterly insights underscore a gradual yet significant shift toward balancing emissions reductions with robust economic growth. The evolving landscape highlights the critical need for sustainable strategies that not only mitigate environmental risks but also invigorate economic resilience.