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TikTok’s Uncertain Future: What A US Ban Means For Social Media And Advertising

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

April 4, 2025

TikTok is once again on the chopping block. With in-app purchase (IAP) revenue still 20% below pre-ban levels, the platform is struggling to regain momentum. As its parent company, ByteDance, faces an April 5 deadline to either sell TikTok’s U.S. operations or risk delisting, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

The January Delisting: A Case Study In Disruption

Earlier this year, TikTok went offline in the U.S. ahead of the original January 19 deadline, only to be reinstated after an eleventh-hour extension. The brief outage offered a glimpse into what a permanent ban could mean for the digital ecosystem—particularly for advertisers, competitors, and user engagement.

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Instagram’s Gain, TikTok’s Loss

When TikTok disappeared from app stores for 24 days, competitors saw a surge in downloads. Instagram installations spiked by 21%, while the broader short-form video market grew by 7%. Since TikTok’s reinstatement, its downloads have rebounded sharply, surging 82% over the past six weeks.

Engagement Shifts: Meta, Reddit, And X Capitalize

Time spent on TikTok took a 4% hit during the delisting period. Meanwhile, engagement on rival platforms, including Instagram, Reddit, and X, each rose by 4%. With TikTok’s status in flux, users began exploring alternatives—an opportunity competitors were quick to seize.

Revenue Realignment: YouTube And X See Gains

TikTok’s U.S. monetization strategy heavily relies on in-app purchases, generating $1.7 billion annually. But during the delisting period, YouTube’s IAP revenue jumped 9%, while X saw an 8% increase. This trend suggests that users—and their spending habits—can be redirected if TikTok faces further disruptions.

Meta Absorbs TikTok’s Advertising Dollars

Despite TikTok’s meteoric rise as a preferred advertising platform, uncertainty is prompting brands to shift their budgets. Eight of the ten largest advertising categories on TikTok reduced their U.S. social media ad spend in early 2025 compared to 2024. Meta emerged as the biggest beneficiary, drawing ad dollars from companies seeking stability.

Major brands such as Coca-Cola, Walmart, Google, and Amazon have increased their spend on TikTok in Q1 2025, but others—like Target, Procter & Gamble, and Disney—have scaled back. This realignment underscores the volatile nature of TikTok’s position in the U.S. market.

The Road Ahead

As the April 5 deadline approaches, the future of TikTok in the U.S. remains uncertain. Whether through a forced sale, another extension, or an outright ban, the platform’s ongoing legal and regulatory battles will continue to shape the social media landscape. One thing is clear—TikTok’s turbulence is creating opportunities for its biggest competitors.

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Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

June 26, 2026

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

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Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.