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TikTok’s Uncertain Future: What A US Ban Means For Social Media And Advertising

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

April 4, 2025

TikTok is once again on the chopping block. With in-app purchase (IAP) revenue still 20% below pre-ban levels, the platform is struggling to regain momentum. As its parent company, ByteDance, faces an April 5 deadline to either sell TikTok’s U.S. operations or risk delisting, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

The January Delisting: A Case Study In Disruption

Earlier this year, TikTok went offline in the U.S. ahead of the original January 19 deadline, only to be reinstated after an eleventh-hour extension. The brief outage offered a glimpse into what a permanent ban could mean for the digital ecosystem—particularly for advertisers, competitors, and user engagement.

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Instagram’s Gain, TikTok’s Loss

When TikTok disappeared from app stores for 24 days, competitors saw a surge in downloads. Instagram installations spiked by 21%, while the broader short-form video market grew by 7%. Since TikTok’s reinstatement, its downloads have rebounded sharply, surging 82% over the past six weeks.

Engagement Shifts: Meta, Reddit, And X Capitalize

Time spent on TikTok took a 4% hit during the delisting period. Meanwhile, engagement on rival platforms, including Instagram, Reddit, and X, each rose by 4%. With TikTok’s status in flux, users began exploring alternatives—an opportunity competitors were quick to seize.

Revenue Realignment: YouTube And X See Gains

TikTok’s U.S. monetization strategy heavily relies on in-app purchases, generating $1.7 billion annually. But during the delisting period, YouTube’s IAP revenue jumped 9%, while X saw an 8% increase. This trend suggests that users—and their spending habits—can be redirected if TikTok faces further disruptions.

Meta Absorbs TikTok’s Advertising Dollars

Despite TikTok’s meteoric rise as a preferred advertising platform, uncertainty is prompting brands to shift their budgets. Eight of the ten largest advertising categories on TikTok reduced their U.S. social media ad spend in early 2025 compared to 2024. Meta emerged as the biggest beneficiary, drawing ad dollars from companies seeking stability.

Major brands such as Coca-Cola, Walmart, Google, and Amazon have increased their spend on TikTok in Q1 2025, but others—like Target, Procter & Gamble, and Disney—have scaled back. This realignment underscores the volatile nature of TikTok’s position in the U.S. market.

The Road Ahead

As the April 5 deadline approaches, the future of TikTok in the U.S. remains uncertain. Whether through a forced sale, another extension, or an outright ban, the platform’s ongoing legal and regulatory battles will continue to shape the social media landscape. One thing is clear—TikTok’s turbulence is creating opportunities for its biggest competitors.

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OpenAI Releases GDPval Benchmark To Gauge AI Performance Against Human Experts

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

September 26, 2025

New Benchmark Sheds Light on AI’s Capabilities

OpenAI has unveiled GDPval, a new benchmark designed to evaluate its AI models against human professionals across a broad spectrum of industries. This initiative represents a critical step in understanding how far today’s AI is from matching or surpassing the work quality of experts in sectors such as healthcare, finance, manufacturing, and government.

Methodology and Industry Scope

The GDPval benchmark focuses on nine major industries contributing to America’s gross domestic product and tests AI performance in 44 distinct occupations—from software engineering to nursing and journalism. In its initial version, GDPval-v0, industry professionals compared reports generated by AI models with those produced by their human counterparts. For instance, investment bankers were tasked with evaluating competitor landscape analyses for the last-mile delivery industry, ensuring that the assessment reflects real-world complexity.

Comparative Performance: AI Advances and Limitations

Results indicate promising progress; OpenAI’s GPT-5-high, an enhanced iteration of its flagship model, achieved a win rate of 40.6% when compared head-to-head with industry veterans. More notably, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 reached nearly 49% on similar criteria. However, OpenAI acknowledges that these models are not yet positioned to replace human labor entirely, as the current iteration of GDPval covers a narrow slice of actual job responsibilities.

Expert Insights and Future Directions

In a discussion with TechCrunch, OpenAI’s chief economist, Dr. Aaron Chatterji, noted that the benchmark’s favorable outcomes suggest professionals may soon delegate routine tasks to AI. This, he argued, will free up valuable time for focusing on higher-impact work. Industry observer Tejal Patwardhan also expressed optimism, emphasizing the significant performance leap from GPT-4’s 13.7% score to nearly triple that figure with GPT-5.

Benchmarking And The Road To Comprehensive AI Evaluation

While GDPval represents an early milestone, it aligns with a broader effort among Silicon Valley titans to create robust testing frameworks, such as AIME 2025 and GPQA Diamond, that better quantify AI proficiency for real-world applications. OpenAI plans to expand GDPval to encapsulate more industries and interactive workflows, aiming to bolster its claims about AI’s growing economic value.

As the benchmark evolves, GDPval could play an instrumental role in the ongoing debate around artificial general intelligence, highlighting the potential and limitations of AI models poised to reshape the modern workforce.