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The Nobel Prize in Economics goes to prosperity researchers

Darren Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson received this year’s Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for their contributions to proving the importance of public institutions to a country’s prosperity.

KEY FACTS

  • The prestigious prize, officially known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize for Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, is the last prize awarded this year and is worth SEK 11 million ($1.1 million).
  • This year’s laureates showed that one of the explanations for differences in countries’ prosperity is the social institutions introduced during European colonization. Inclusive institutions were often introduced in countries that were poor at the time of colonization, which over time led to general prosperity for the population. This is an important reason why former colonies that were once rich are now poor and vice versa.
  • Introducing inclusive institutions would create long-term benefits for everyone, but extractive institutions provide short-term gains for those in power. As long as the political system ensures they retain their control, no one will trust their promises of future economic reforms. According to the laureates, this is the reason why there is no improvement.
  • “Reducing the huge income gaps between countries is one of the greatest challenges of our time. The laureates have demonstrated the importance of public institutions in achieving this,” said Jakob Svensson, Chairman of the Economic Sciences Prize Committee.
  • “Societies with poor rule of law and institutions that exploit the population do not generate growth or change for the better,” the prize’s organizers add on their website.

TANGENT

Darren Acemoglu and Simon Johnson work at MIT, while James Robinson is at the University of Chicago.

Acemoglu and Johnson recently collaborated on a book researching technology through the ages that demonstrates how some technological advances are better at creating jobs and spreading wealth than others.

KEY STORY

The Economics Prize is not one of the original science, literature and peace prizes created by the will of dynamite inventor and businessman Alfred Nobel and first awarded in 1901, but is a later additional prize established and funded by the Central Bank of Sweden in 1968.

Past recipients of the award include a number of influential thinkers such as Milton Friedman, and John Nash – played by actor Russell Crowe in the 2001 film A Beautiful Mind, and former US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Last year, Harvard economic historian Claudia Goldin won a prize for her work highlighting the causes of pay and labor market inequality between men and women.

Capital Deployment Emerges As Key Growth Driver For Greek Banks

UBS highlighted Eurobank and Alpha Bank in a report shared by Greek business outlet Newmoney, as investors increasingly focus on the lenders’ regional footprints, including Cyprus. Greek banks remain among the clearest beneficiaries of the country’s economic recovery, while more disciplined capital deployment could create further value for shareholders.

Despite recovering from lows during the Middle East crisis, Greek banks continue to trade at a discount to European peers. UBS sees potential for a rerating as lenders combine selective acquisitions with higher shareholder distributions.

Strong Fundamentals Support The Outlook

UBS expects performing corporate lending to grow about 8% annually between 2025 and 2028, while net interest margins are believed to have reached their low point. Improving net interest income and fee income should support earnings, while non-performing exposures and the cost of risk have fallen more than expected.

Greece is also expected to sustain GDP growth of roughly 2% annually, supported by investment backed by the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility. The country has received around €25 billion of the €36 billion available, while UBS forecasts a primary surplus of up to 3.5% of GDP in 2025 and public debt falling to 138% of GDP in 2026 and 133% in 2027.

Eurobank And Alpha Bank Stand Out In Cyprus

Eurobank drew particular attention following its acquisition of Hellenic Bank in 2025, which expanded its presence in Cyprus. UBS sees further growth potential across south-eastern Europe and considers the Hellenic Bank and Eurolife acquisitions positive for profitability and return on tangible equity.

Eurobank received a buy rating and a €5.10 price target, implying 11.7% upside. Alpha Bank also received a buy recommendation, with a €4.90 target implying 8.7% upside, supported by improving profitability, value-enhancing acquisitions and its share buyback program.

Piraeus And National Bank Offer Further Upside

Piraeus Bank was UBS’s top pick, with a buy rating and a €12 price target implying 18.8% upside. The bank cited long-term growth prospects, improving return on tangible equity and the expected acquisition of National Insurance, which would expand its financial services and bancassurance platform.

National Bank of Greece received a buy recommendation and an €18.70 target, implying 12.7% upside. UBS cited its profitability, capital position and credit quality, while its agreement with Allianz could provide further support to earnings and return on tangible equity.

Capital Discipline To Shape The Next Phase

UBS expects stronger lending, fee income, lower credit risks and continued economic growth to support Greek banks. However, the report argues that capital allocation will increasingly determine performance as lenders move beyond balance-sheet expansion.

For Eurobank and Alpha Bank, regional expansion, acquisitions, improving profitability and shareholder returns are expected to drive the next phase, while UBS sees further upside across the sector as lending and capital distributions strengthen.

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