Breaking news

Tesla Valuation Questioned As Earnings Fall And Market Share Declines

An investor report from Macfarlane Investors LLC, circulated on X, contends that Tesla is significantly overvalued relative to its core business fundamentals.

Overwhelming Valuation Discrepancy

The report estimates Tesla’s market capitalization at around $1.5 trillion, implying a price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 376x. This level suggests investors are pricing in strong execution across areas such as autonomous driving, robotics, and energy storage, despite ongoing operational challenges.

Deteriorating Automotive Business Metrics

The analysis points to pressure in Tesla’s core automotive segment. Earnings per share have declined by 75% since 2023. The company has also reported its first revenue contraction since its IPO. Market share is also shifting. In the US, Tesla’s share of the electric vehicle market is projected to fall from 79% in 2020 to 46% by 2025. In Europe, it is expected to decline from 18% in 2023 to about 9% in 2025.

Intensifying Global Competition

Competition is increasing, particularly from companies such as BYD and Xiaomi. BYD now sells more than 600,000 additional vehicles annually compared to Tesla, reflecting growing pressure in the global EV market.

Robotaxi And Autonomous Efforts Under Scrutiny

The report also questions Tesla’s progress in autonomous driving. Observations in Austin suggest the unsupervised robotaxi fleet remains limited, with only one to two vehicles operating. In the Bay Area, some vehicles are still driven with human oversight. This indicates that full autonomy has not yet been achieved at scale.

Safety, Transparency, and Regulatory Challenges

The report raises concerns around safety metrics and regulatory progress. Tesla is estimated to have one incident per 57,000 miles when a safety monitor is present. Waymo reports one incident per 98,000 miles without human intervention. Regulatory timelines remain uncertain. Key permits in Texas are expected on May 28, 2026, while approval processes vary across regions. This suggests that robotaxi revenues may not scale before 2029 to 2031, compared to broader market expectations of 2027 to 2028.

Capital Expenditure And Future Outlook

The report states that a large part of Tesla’s valuation is based on future revenue from technologies that are not yet proven. Capital expenditure is expected to exceed $20 billion in 2026, which could pressure free cash flow in the near term. As one analyst noted, robotaxis could become a large market, but the timing remains uncertain. At current valuation levels, this creates a mismatch between expectations and delivery.

Passkeys Are The Gold Standard For Account Security. So Why Don’t More Major Apps Offer Them?

Passkeys are increasingly being promoted as one of the most effective ways to protect online accounts. By reducing reliance on passwords, they help prevent phishing attacks, simplify sign-ins and strengthen account security. Despite those advantages, however, many major digital platforms have yet to adopt the technology.

A Security Upgrade Still Missing At Scale

That gap is the focus of whynopasskeys.com, a new site created by security researcher Scott Helme to highlight companies that have not yet enabled passkeys for their users. The site tracks major consumer brands that continue to rely on older login methods even as passkeys become the industry standard.

Among the services still without passkey support are Instagram, Netflix and Spotify, according to the site’s data.

Why Passkeys Matter

Unlike traditional passwords, passkeys are generated on a user’s device and linked both to that device and to a specific website or application. Authentication can be completed through biometrics such as Face ID or Touch ID, a hardware security key or a password manager.

Because users do not need to create or remember passwords, opportunities for credential theft, phishing attacks and password reuse are significantly reduced. In most cases, gaining access to an account would require direct access to the user’s device.

Public Accountability As A Pressure Tactic

In a blog post explaining the project, Helme said the goal is to create pressure by making the absence of passkey support visible. “A list is a surprisingly effective motivator. Nobody wants to be on the list,” he wrote.

That approach has already worked elsewhere in cybersecurity: when businesses are publicly compared against peers on basic protections, they often move faster to close the gap. In this case, the list is intended to push platforms to give users a stronger and simpler login option.

The Companies Moving Faster

Many large technology companies have already adopted passkeys, including Apple, Google and Microsoft, reflecting the technology’s growing role in account security.

Implementation, however, remains uneven. Instagram users can currently access passkeys only when their account is linked to a Facebook account that already has passkey support enabled, highlighting differences in adoption even within the same company.

The Bigger Business Question

Meta has not publicly explained why passkeys are available on some of its platforms, including Facebook and WhatsApp, but not fully across Instagram.

Debate within the industry is no longer centred on whether passkeys work, but on how quickly companies are willing to deploy them. As phishing, credential theft and account fraud remain persistent cybersecurity challenges, passkeys are increasingly being viewed not as an optional feature but as an emerging security standard.

Uol
The Future Forbes Realty Global Properties
Aretilaw firm
eCredo

Become a Speaker

Become a Speaker

Become a Partner

Subscribe for our weekly newsletter