Breaking news

Tariffs On Global Commerce: How Cyprus Stays Cautious Amid Global Change

The recent imposition of sweeping tariffs by the U.S. administration, helmed by former President Donald Trump, has created uncertainty across the globe. Economic advisers worldwide forecast turbulent times ahead, particularly due to concerns over surging inflation and a predicted downturn in the global market. The European Union, along with other major economies, is preparing to counteract these tariffs with strategic retaliatory measures.

Cyprus: Navigating Calm Waters?

Interestingly, Cyprus has adopted a calm and optimistic stance, likely because its export portfolio to the U.S. is relatively minor. This has given the government and its financial institutions a sense of security, despite the potential global fallout. As noted by the Deputy Government Spokesperson Yiannis Antoniou, the limited impact on Cyprus underscores a long-standing trade dynamic that largely skirts American markets. However, there remains a watchful eye on potential future impacts, suggesting the need for cautious observation.

The EU’s Strategic Response

Despite the seemingly minimal immediate repercussions for Cyprus, the broader implications can’t be ignored. The European Union has voiced its intent to respond to the U.S. measures. As Cyprus aligns its policies with the EU, it will adopt broader community actions aimed at managing the economic landscape affected by these tariffs.

Learning From the Past: The 2008 Precedent

Former DISY President and current MP Averof Neophytou highlighted the importance of vigilance. Reflecting on 2008, when economic laxity led to unforeseen challenges, he emphasized the necessity for timely preparedness to mitigate possible impacts on Cyprus’ small yet globally intertwined economy.

The scenario posited by Neophytou raises an important query: could the absence of dialogue among global economic leaders spiral into a relentless tariff war? The disconcerting possibility of escalating inflation and recessions in national economies is real, rendering Cyprus’s cautious stance prudent yet proactive.

The Role Of Cyprus In Global Trade

Despite the current optimism, potential longer-term effects could ripple through industries like dairy and electronics, which form a significant portion of Cyprus’ exports to the U.S. However, the immediate stance remains one of thoughtful observation rather than reaction. As Michalis Antoniou, Director General of the OEB, suggests, any global economic contraction would undeniably affect Cyprus.

Regardless of the limited exposure, this situation is a stark reminder of the interconnected nature of global markets. It prompts Cyprus, although minimally affected in the short term, to remain vigilant and responsive to the broader trends in international trade and tariffs.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

eCredo
Aretilaw firm
Uol
The Future Forbes Realty Global Properties

Become a Speaker

Become a Speaker

Become a Partner

Subscribe for our weekly newsletter