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Tariffs And Inflation Expected To Dominate Markets In 2025, JPMorgan Survey Reveals

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

February 6, 2025

A recent survey by JPMorgan has highlighted tariffs and inflation as the main forces shaping global markets in 2025, with geopolitical tensions also emerging as a key factor. Conducted among 4,233 institutional trading clients, the annual poll showed that 51% of respondents expect tariffs and inflation to be the most significant drivers this year. This marks a sharp increase from the 27% who flagged inflation as a concern in 2024.

In addition to inflation, 41% of traders cited volatility as their primary challenge, up from 28% last year. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a recession impacting market movement has decreased, with only 7% of traders highlighting it as a risk this year, compared to 18% in 2024.

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The poll also shed light on key concerns within the market structure, including access to liquidity, regulatory shifts, and rising costs associated with market data.

The Tariff Showdown

This year’s tariff drama kicked off with President Donald Trump’s announcement of aggressive measures targeting the U.S.’s top three trade partners—Canada, China, and Mexico. These included a 25% tariff on goods from neighboring countries and a 10% additional tariff on Chinese imports. In retaliation, Canada and Mexico prepared to impose reciprocal tariffs, but a diplomatic breakthrough led to a temporary delay in enforcement.

On the other side of the globe, China responded with its new tariffs on American goods, including crude oil and agricultural machinery, escalating trade tensions even further.

Inflation’s Ripple Effect

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee issued a warning this week about the potential inflationary fallout from the tariff policies. He noted that if inflation picks up in 2025, it will be critical for the Fed to differentiate whether the rise is due to economic overheating or a result of tariffs. This distinction, he argued, will play a pivotal role in shaping the Fed’s future policy decisions.

Experts estimate that the average price of new cars could surge by $3,000, and full-sized trucks might see a price hike of up to $10,000, as the U.S. imports 22% of its vehicles from Canada and Mexico. Meanwhile, fuel prices are expected to jump by as much as 40 cents per gallon, due to Canada being a major supplier of oil for the U.S., sending about 20% of the nation’s oil consumption. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan predicts these price increases could hit within days of the tariffs coming into play.

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Only 1% Of Cyprus Farms Use Precision Farming Technologies

Cyprus remains one of the European Union’s least digitised agricultural economies, with just 1% of farms using precision farming technologies in 2023, according to Eurostat.

The findings come as the EU continues to encourage the adoption of digital tools aimed at improving agricultural productivity, efficiency and sustainability.

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Internet Access Expands, But Digital Uptake Lags

Internet access has improved across the bloc, although adoption remains uneven. Eurostat found that 43% of EU farms had internet access in 2023, with northern and central European countries leading the way.

Denmark, Germany, Slovakia, Latvia, the Czech Republic and Austria all reported internet access rates above 90%.

Greater connectivity, however, has not translated into widespread digital adoption. Farm management information systems, which help farmers manage day-to-day operations, were used by only about 11% of EU farms. France was a notable exception, with around 60% of farms using the technology.

Precision Farming Concentrated In Larger Operations

Robotics adoption also remained relatively limited, with only about 7% of EU farms using robotic technologies. Overall, around 18% of farms with utilised agricultural area employed at least one precision farming technology or practice in 2023.

These included robotics for plant protection, band spraying, variable-rate application, precision crop monitoring and soil analysis. Despite representing fewer than one in five farms, these holdings accounted for around 44% of the EU’s utilised agricultural area.

The figures suggest that precision farming remains concentrated among larger agricultural businesses, where investment in digital technologies is typically easier to support.

Cyprus Lags Behind EU Leaders

Luxembourg, Finland and Estonia recorded the highest shares of utilised agricultural area managed by farms using precision farming technologies, each exceeding 75%.

At the other end of the ranking, Cyprus recorded just 1%, while Greece and Romania reported between 10% and 15%. The results indicate that Cyprus remains at an early stage of digital adoption in agriculture, even as precision farming becomes more widespread across parts of the European Union.