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State Budget Execution Reflects Lower Borrowing And Debt Repayment Trends

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

November 26, 2025

Overview Of Fiscal Performance Through October 2025

The execution of the state budget until the end of October 2025 has reached 65% for revenues and 59% for expenditures, according to data released by the General Accounting Office. This performance marks a decline relative to the previous period, attributed largely to reduced borrowing and lower scheduled debt repayments.

Revenue Analysis

State revenues totaled €7.63 billion, a decrease from €8.48 billion recorded in 2024. This shortfall comes despite an increase in both indirect taxes, which rose by €0.13 billion—with enhancements in VAT, consumption taxes and other related levies—and direct taxes, which saw an increase of €0.16 billion mainly driven by higher income tax collections. In stark contrast, loan withdrawals plunged to €0.09 billion compared to €1.14 billion in the prior year.

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Government Expenditures

Actual state expenditures came in at €7.68 billion, down from €8.77 billion last year. Spending on wages, pensions, and indemnities was recorded at €2.73 billion, showing a modest reduction compared to the previous period. Notably, repayments on debt and interest contracted to €0.82 billion from €2 billion, reflecting a strategic move towards lowering the fiscal burden of public debt.

Social Spending And Allocations

Social benefits experienced an uplift, totaling €1.51 billion, largely due to augmented funding for the Renewable Energy Sources Fund and increased allocations towards health services, even as social welfare outlays diminished. Additionally, transfers and grants rose to €1.46 billion—a €0.13 billion increase over the previous year—highlighting enhanced financing to municipalities, social insurance programs, and the unified European Asylum Facility.

Operational, Capital And Developmental Investments

Operational expenditures fell by 11% to €0.70 billion. Capital spending amounted to €285.1 million with significant investments directed toward road infrastructure, government buildings, water systems, and educational facilities. Meanwhile, co-financed projects reached €153.5 million, and grants awarded to universities, organizations, and for social benefits totaled €163.1 million. The General Accounting Office notes that the relatively low expenditure rate in 2025 is largely attributable to the seasonal scheduling of public debt repayments, while developmental spending achieved a 46% execution rate—surpassing the decade-long average of 42%.

This careful recalibration of fiscal policies, emphasizing reduced borrowing and measured debt servicing, underscores a broader commitment to sustainable financial management in a challenging economic environment.

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ECB Raises Deposit Facility Rate For First Time In Nearly Two Years

Economic Shift: ECB Reverses Years Of Declining Rates

The European Central Bank (ECB) confirmed its first interest rate increase in nearly two years, raising the deposit facility rate in response to inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. Marking a shift in monetary policy, the move follows a period of rate cuts aimed at supporting economic activity and easing financing conditions.

Reevaluation Of Bank Liquidity Strategies

Although the immediate impact will be felt by only part of the borrowing market, the decision carries broader implications for banks. During the period of lower rates, banks maintained significant amounts of excess liquidity with the ECB as returns on these funds declined alongside deposit rates. With the deposit facility rate increasing by 0.25 percentage points to 2.25% from 2.00%, returns on surplus liquidity are expected to improve.

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Higher interest rates, however, could also increase borrowing costs and influence lending conditions across the banking sector.

Transitioning Investment Approaches And Market Dynamics

Banks had already begun diversifying the use of excess liquidity through investments in bonds and by expanding lending activities.

Successive reductions in the deposit facility rate from 3.00% at the end of 2024 through four consecutive cuts in early 2025 reflected a more accommodative policy stance as inflation pressures moderated.

Sectoral Impact And Future Outlook

Data from the ECB’s 2025 monetary policy report show that liquidity in the Cypriot banking system declined from €19.2 billion at the end of 2024 to €18.6 billion by the close of 2025. Despite the reduction, liquidity levels remained elevated. Outstanding loans increased from €27.6 billion to €31.7 billion, while deposits recorded a slight decline. Customer deposits continued to account for the vast majority of funding. By the fourth quarter of 2025, they represented 95% of total liabilities, highlighting their importance as the banking sector’s primary source of financing.

Changes in ECB rates are expected to influence how banks manage liquidity and allocate capital as monetary conditions evolve.