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State Budget Execution Reflects Lower Borrowing And Debt Repayment Trends

Overview Of Fiscal Performance Through October 2025

The execution of the state budget until the end of October 2025 has reached 65% for revenues and 59% for expenditures, according to data released by the General Accounting Office. This performance marks a decline relative to the previous period, attributed largely to reduced borrowing and lower scheduled debt repayments.

Revenue Analysis

State revenues totaled €7.63 billion, a decrease from €8.48 billion recorded in 2024. This shortfall comes despite an increase in both indirect taxes, which rose by €0.13 billion—with enhancements in VAT, consumption taxes and other related levies—and direct taxes, which saw an increase of €0.16 billion mainly driven by higher income tax collections. In stark contrast, loan withdrawals plunged to €0.09 billion compared to €1.14 billion in the prior year.

Government Expenditures

Actual state expenditures came in at €7.68 billion, down from €8.77 billion last year. Spending on wages, pensions, and indemnities was recorded at €2.73 billion, showing a modest reduction compared to the previous period. Notably, repayments on debt and interest contracted to €0.82 billion from €2 billion, reflecting a strategic move towards lowering the fiscal burden of public debt.

Social Spending And Allocations

Social benefits experienced an uplift, totaling €1.51 billion, largely due to augmented funding for the Renewable Energy Sources Fund and increased allocations towards health services, even as social welfare outlays diminished. Additionally, transfers and grants rose to €1.46 billion—a €0.13 billion increase over the previous year—highlighting enhanced financing to municipalities, social insurance programs, and the unified European Asylum Facility.

Operational, Capital And Developmental Investments

Operational expenditures fell by 11% to €0.70 billion. Capital spending amounted to €285.1 million with significant investments directed toward road infrastructure, government buildings, water systems, and educational facilities. Meanwhile, co-financed projects reached €153.5 million, and grants awarded to universities, organizations, and for social benefits totaled €163.1 million. The General Accounting Office notes that the relatively low expenditure rate in 2025 is largely attributable to the seasonal scheduling of public debt repayments, while developmental spending achieved a 46% execution rate—surpassing the decade-long average of 42%.

This careful recalibration of fiscal policies, emphasizing reduced borrowing and measured debt servicing, underscores a broader commitment to sustainable financial management in a challenging economic environment.

MENA Venture Capital Stable As International Investor Activity Shifts

A Data-Led Analysis Of Investor Behavior In A War-Affected Region

Venture capital activity in the Middle East and North Africa remained relatively stable one month after the escalation of regional conflict. Early data, however, indicate changes in investor behavior rather than immediate shifts in funding totals. Initial signals are visible in investor participation, capital allocation, and deal pipeline activity.

Venture Markets And The Lag In Response

Funding announcements reflect decisions made months earlier, meaning that today’s figures do not capture the full impact of current events. Investors typically adjust strategies gradually, signaling future shifts long before they are immediately visible in total funding numbers.

International Capital As The Key Pressure Indicator

Participation of international investors remains a key indicator across the MENA venture market. Global capital has historically accounted for a significant share of funding in the region. Following global interest rate increases, international participation declined through 2023. This shift was reflected in lower cross-border deal activity, more cautious capital deployment, and longer fundraising timelines.

Implications For The Broader Startup Ecosystem

Changes in international investor activity affect multiple parts of the startup ecosystem. A recovery in participation was recorded in 2024 and continued into 2025, supporting funding activity and cross-border investment. If uncertainty persists, potential effects include slower investment decisions, reduced cross-border engagement, and extended fundraising cycles. International capital also plays a role in supporting larger funding rounds and access to global networks.

Next Steps For Stakeholders

International capital represents one of several factors shaping venture activity in the region. Its movement often precedes changes in late-stage funding, startup formation, and exit activity. Investors, policymakers, and ecosystem participants rely on data and scenario analysis to assess these trends and adjust strategies.

For A Deeper Insight

Further analysis on venture activity, capital flows, and geopolitical impact across the region is available in the full MAGNiTT report.

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