Stagflation-lite: A Subtle Economic Threat That Could Disrupt Global Policy

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

February 24, 2025

Policymakers might not favor the term “stagflation,” but its modern, milder variant—stagflation-lite—could soon dominate their concerns. With U.S. President Donald Trump threatening import tariffs that risk igniting a global trade war, the stage is set for a scenario where below-trend growth meets above-trend inflation.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey recently dismissed the term, remarking, “I don’t use the word stagflation. It doesn’t have a particularly, frankly, precise meaning.” Once coined to describe the 1970s mix of economic stagnation and runaway inflation, “stagflation” now often labels any scenario where growth falters while inflation runs hot—even if only moderately so.

Follow THE FUTURE on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X and Telegram

Yet, even this diluted form can pose serious challenges. Policymakers’ tools are typically designed either to spur growth or rein in inflation—rarely both simultaneously. As economists warn that tit-for-tat protectionist measures could usher in stagflation-lite, central bankers worldwide might find themselves grappling with an economic conundrum unlike any other.

Across the pond in Britain, data underscores these concerns. Recent figures reveal inflation climbing to 3%—well above the Bank of England’s 2% target—while economic growth shows signs of cooling. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and HSBC have trimmed their 2025 UK GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.4%, and the BoE now projects inflation will peak at 3.7% later this year before subsiding.

The debate extends to Europe as well. At the European Central Bank, contrasting views have emerged: Isabel Schnabel, a noted hawk, is leaning toward pausing rate cuts, while Italian central bank chief Fabio Panetta cautions that growth could be even weaker than anticipated.

As global trade tensions simmer and economic indicators point to a potential stagflation-lite environment, the challenge for policymakers is clear. Balancing the dual mandates of sustaining growth and controlling inflation will require unprecedented finesse—a balancing act that, if mismanaged, could have far-reaching implications for the global economy.

The Future Forbes Realty Global Properties

EU Mercosur Agreement Sparks Political Battle Over Cyprus Agriculture

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 16, 2026

A political battleground emerged in the Parliamentary Agriculture Committee’s latest session, as fierce debates broke out over the controversial trade deal between the European Union and Latin American nations under the Mercosur framework. Lawmakers voiced deep concerns regarding food safety and the prospects for local agriculture, particularly following the high-profile absence of the Minister of Trade.

Minister Absence And Parliamentary Integrity

Committee Chair Giannakis Gabriel expressed strong disapproval over the Minister’s no-show, noting that the extraordinary session was scheduled at midday at the Minister’s own request. “His absence undermines the authority of the parliament,” Mr. Gabriel declared. Given that the Minister is not abroad, it was expected that he would be present to clarify why Cyprus supported an agreement widely criticized as disadvantaging the agricultural sector.

Trade Deal Under Scrutiny

In his address, A.C.E.L General Secretary Stefanos Stefanos described the pact as a “dangerous agreement” imposed under the pressure of multinational conglomerates. He especially critiqued the contrasting sanitary standards whereby, while the EU bans our farmers from using certain pesticides and antibiotics, the Mercosur deal appears to allow imports produced with these very substances. His remarks underscored the possibility of double standards in safety measures and the potential long-term impacts on Cypriot agriculture.

Economic And Safety Concerns

Legislators questioned the basis of government studies that justified backing the agreement, even as Cyprus’ agricultural sustainability is increasingly threatened by water scarcity and soaring production costs. Representatives from various political factions pointed to insufficient controls over import volumes and tariff structures. For example, Christos Orphanidis (DIKO) demanded precise data on imports from Latin America, citing honey as a case in point, and pressed for clear explanations regarding the tariff regime.

Legal And Health Implications

Questions about legal authority were raised by Elias Myriantounos (EDEK), who inquired whether parliament can reject or amend the agreement should economic studies forecast negative outcomes. Environmental advocates, like Haralambos Theopemptou of the Movement of Ecologists, emphasized the need to safeguard traditional products such as halloumi, highlighting concerns over how rigorous food safety controls will be maintained. Meanwhile, Linos Papagiannis (ELAM) cautioned against unfair competition, drawing parallels with challenges posed by lower-standard goods from occupied territories.

Protecting Local Interests

The overarching message from lawmakers was clear: the future of Cyprus’ farming community and the well-being of its citizens should not be sacrificed at the altar of commercial trade. Agricultural organizations have voiced alarm over the importation of goods potentially contaminated with banned substances, the risk of market distortion by low-quality products, and the lack of localized impact studies. They argue that the agreement is biased in favor of select corporate interests, ultimately undermining consumer safety and the livelihood of European farmers.

As this debate continues to unfold, the outcome of these deliberations will be pivotal in determining not only trade policy but also the long-term economic and food security landscape of Cyprus.