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S&P’s Credit Rating Upgrade Highlights Strengthened Position Of Bank Of Cyprus

In a significant development for Cyprus’ financial sector, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has upgraded the long-term credit rating of the Bank of Cyprus to BB+, just one notch below investment grade, with a positive outlook. This upgrade reflects the bank’s enhanced capital position and robust profit-generation capacity, coupled with a reduction in economic risks within Cyprus.

Strengthened Capitalisation and Profitability

S&P’s upgrade follows a similar improvement in Cyprus’ sovereign credit rating, signifying broader economic stability. The agency cited the bank’s strengthened capitalisation and its ability to maintain solid profitability, even in a challenging economic environment. Despite the anticipated decline in favourable conditions due to high interest rates, S&P expects the Bank of Cyprus to sustain a resilient net interest margin of 350-400 basis points in 2024 and 2025.

Cost Control and Sustainable Profitability

S&P also highlighted the importance of strict cost control measures in maintaining sustainable profitability. The bank’s cost-to-income ratio is projected to move towards 44-46% by the end of 2026, a significant improvement from the high of 66% observed between 2018 and 2022. This reflects the bank’s strategic focus on efficiency and cost management.

Risk Normalisation and Asset Quality

The agency noted an ongoing normalisation of risk costs, including provisions for recovered real estate assets, which are expected to drop below 80 basis points. This decline is set to further fortify profitability as interest rates stabilise. S&P anticipates the bank will maintain a return on tangible equity above 16% for 2024, and around 12-13% from 2025 to 2026.

Broad Sectoral Recovery

The upgrade also reflects a broader recovery within the Cypriot banking sector. Following years of significant non-performing loan (NPL) sales, securitisations, write-offs, and recoveries, the sector has largely absorbed the impact of the 2012 financial crisis. Although the NPL ratio remains higher compared to other European banks, it continues to decline, reaching 7.3% at the end of March 2024, with a coverage ratio of 53.3%.

Future Prospects

Looking ahead, S&P expects Cypriot banks to gradually expand their operations as legacy issues from problematic loans diminish. The sector is projected to see an average lending growth of 2.5% from 2024 to 2027, marking a shift from the deleveraging trend observed in recent years.

Cyprus Invested €213.6 Million In R&D In 2023, Up 3.2% From 2022

Incremental Rise in R&D Spending

Cyprus dedicated €213.6 million to research and development in 2023, amounting to 0.68% of its GDP, according to data released by Cystat. This figure represents a modest 3.2% increase over the previous year, when total expenditure reached €207 million (0.70% of GDP).

Comparative European Landscape

While research and innovation spending in Cyprus has consistently trended upward over the past decade, its relative investment remains below the EU average of 2.26%. Countries such as Malta and Romania exhibit similarly lower percentages, at 0.64% and 0.52% of GDP, respectively, as opposed to the frontrunners like Sweden (3.64%), Belgium (3.27%), and Austria (3.26%) in 2023.

Long-Term Growth Prospects

Despite its modest share of GDP, Cyprus boasts one of the highest long-term growth rates in its bloc. Between 2000 and 2023, the nation’s R&D expenditure grew at an annual average of 9.96%, and from 2010 to 2023, this growth averaged 7.23%—significantly outpacing the EU’s averages of 4.47% and 4.62% respectively.

Sectoral and Funding Breakdown

Analysis by sector reveals that business enterprises led R&D activity with €89.6 million (41.9% of total expenditure), followed by higher education institutions at €76.9 million (36%), private non-profit organizations at €31.1 million (14.6%), and the government at €16 million (7.5%). Within the corporate sphere, investment was primarily channeled through information and communication companies (accounting for €51.7 million), complemented by pharmaceutical, electronics, and electrical equipment manufacturers, which contributed €25.9 million.

Diversified Funding Sources

Government funds underwrote 23.5% of the total R&D activity, equating to €50.2 million, a slight increase from 22.1% the previous year. Public universities injected €27 million into the ecosystem, while foreign funding, including EU contributions, provided €45.1 million. Notably, the private sector led the financing efforts with a contribution of €91.3 million, representing 42.8% of the aggregate expenditure.

Disciplinary Focus and Human Capital

Research investments were predominantly directed towards the natural sciences (€94.5 million) and engineering and technology (€66.1 million). The social sciences (€22.3 million), agricultural sciences (€12.6 million), medical sciences (€10.5 million), and humanities (€7.5 million) completed the funding profile. The R&D workforce in 2023 edged up slightly, engaging 4,257 personnel overall, including 2,308 full-time equivalent researchers, 39.4% of whom were women, with roughly one-third holding PhD qualifications.

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