In a significant development for Cyprus’ financial sector, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has upgraded the long-term credit rating of the Bank of Cyprus to BB+, just one notch below investment grade, with a positive outlook. This upgrade reflects the bank’s enhanced capital position and robust profit-generation capacity, coupled with a reduction in economic risks within Cyprus.

Strengthened Capitalisation and Profitability

S&P’s upgrade follows a similar improvement in Cyprus’ sovereign credit rating, signifying broader economic stability. The agency cited the bank’s strengthened capitalisation and its ability to maintain solid profitability, even in a challenging economic environment. Despite the anticipated decline in favourable conditions due to high interest rates, S&P expects the Bank of Cyprus to sustain a resilient net interest margin of 350-400 basis points in 2024 and 2025.

Cost Control and Sustainable Profitability

S&P also highlighted the importance of strict cost control measures in maintaining sustainable profitability. The bank’s cost-to-income ratio is projected to move towards 44-46% by the end of 2026, a significant improvement from the high of 66% observed between 2018 and 2022. This reflects the bank’s strategic focus on efficiency and cost management.

Risk Normalisation and Asset Quality

The agency noted an ongoing normalisation of risk costs, including provisions for recovered real estate assets, which are expected to drop below 80 basis points. This decline is set to further fortify profitability as interest rates stabilise. S&P anticipates the bank will maintain a return on tangible equity above 16% for 2024, and around 12-13% from 2025 to 2026.

Broad Sectoral Recovery

The upgrade also reflects a broader recovery within the Cypriot banking sector. Following years of significant non-performing loan (NPL) sales, securitisations, write-offs, and recoveries, the sector has largely absorbed the impact of the 2012 financial crisis. Although the NPL ratio remains higher compared to other European banks, it continues to decline, reaching 7.3% at the end of March 2024, with a coverage ratio of 53.3%.

Future Prospects

Looking ahead, S&P expects Cypriot banks to gradually expand their operations as legacy issues from problematic loans diminish. The sector is projected to see an average lending growth of 2.5% from 2024 to 2027, marking a shift from the deleveraging trend observed in recent years.