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Service Sector in Cyprus Shows Mixed Performance Across Industries

The service sector, a vital component of Cyprus’ economy, has shown mixed performance across its various industries, reflecting both opportunities and challenges as the country navigates a post-pandemic economic landscape. The latest data from the Statistical Service of Cyprus highlights significant fluctuations in growth among different sectors within the broader service industry, illustrating the dynamic and evolving nature of this critical part of the economy.

A Diverse Landscape

The service sector in Cyprus encompasses a wide range of industries, including professional services, tourism, transport, communications, and financial services. In recent years, this sector has been a major contributor to the country’s GDP, driving economic growth and employment. However, as recent figures suggest, not all segments of the service industry are progressing at the same pace.

According to the latest report, some areas of the sector have continued to thrive, while others are struggling to regain momentum. The professional, scientific, and technical services sector, which includes a significant portion of Cyprus’ business services exports, has shown resilience and growth. Meanwhile, industries such as tourism and transport have experienced slower recoveries, weighed down by global economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures impacting consumer behaviour.

Growth in Professional Services

Professional services have emerged as a standout performer within the service sector. The steady growth in this area has been driven by an increasing demand for specialised services, including legal, accounting, and consultancy work. Cyprus has long been recognised as a hub for professional services in the region, attracting international clients due to its favourable business environment and regulatory framework. This segment of the service economy continues to benefit from Cyprus’ strategic location, its highly skilled workforce, and the country’s business-friendly policies.

This positive momentum is also reflected in the growth of the information and communications sector. With technological advancements and increased digitalisation, businesses in Cyprus are increasingly seeking innovative IT solutions and communications services. The demand for these services has seen a significant rise as companies look to optimise their operations and enhance their digital capabilities.

Slower Recovery in Tourism and Transport

In contrast, the tourism and transport sectors have faced a more challenging recovery. Tourism, which is a cornerstone of Cyprus’ economy, is showing signs of improvement but has not yet fully returned to its pre-pandemic strength. Although the number of international visitors is rising, ongoing inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties have dampened the pace of recovery. Similarly, the transport sector, closely tied to tourism, has struggled to regain its former momentum, with rising fuel costs and global supply chain disruptions continuing to affect profitability.

Financial Services in Transition

The financial services sector, another pillar of Cyprus’ service industry, is undergoing a period of transition. While still a key player in the economy, the sector has faced increased regulatory scrutiny and challenges related to global economic conditions. Nevertheless, Cyprus remains a competitive financial centre, particularly for international companies seeking advantageous tax regimes and regulatory frameworks.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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