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Saudi Arabia’s Economic Resilience Surpasses Forecasts Amid Robust Private Growth


Impressive First-Quarter Results

In a noteworthy performance, Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded by 3.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing earlier flash estimates of 2.7 percent issued by the Saudi General Authority for Statistics. This stronger-than-expected growth reflects a combination of a less severe contraction in the oil sector and robust performance in the non-oil segment, underscoring the momentum built through economic reforms.

Sectoral Insights and Shifting Dynamics

Notably, oil-related GDP contracted by a marginal 0.5 percent, a significant improvement from the previously forecasted decline of 1.4 percent. Meanwhile, non-oil growth surged by 4.9 percent, outpacing initial estimates of 4.2 percent. Analysts, including Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, attribute these gains to sustained private sector dynamism and an adaptive response to lower oil prices through increased production.

Balancing Fiscal Pressures and Growth Initiatives

Despite these favorable figures, the kingdom faces fiscal challenges. With a widening budget deficit, driven in part by falling oil revenues, the International Monetary Fund has warned that maintaining a balance would require oil prices exceeding $90 per barrel, even as current prices hover around $60. In response, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan has signaled a forthcoming review of spending priorities to mitigate fiscal strain. Nonetheless, persistent project investments, fueled by large-scale events and ongoing development under Vision 2030, are expected to sustain economic momentum.

Vision 2030 and Future Prospects

Central to the kingdom’s long-term strategy is Vision 2030, a transformative initiative aimed at reducing oil dependency and boosting the private sector. With upcoming international events such as the 2029 Asian Winter Games and the 2034 World Cup, substantial investments in infrastructure and construction are set to bolster growth despite current fiscal challenges. Senior economist Daniel Richards of Emirates NBD remains optimistic, highlighting that the breadth of ongoing project spending will support growth in the near term.

Conclusion

The resilient performance of Saudi Arabia’s economy in the first quarter of 2025, coupled with strategic reforms under Vision 2030, demonstrates its ability to adapt and thrive amid global fluctuations. As the kingdom navigates fiscal pressures and leverages private sector strength, its economic trajectory continues to offer compelling insights for global market observers.


Apple Surpasses Nvidia As Investors Reassess The True Cost Of The AI Boom

Apple Reclaims Title As World’s Most Valuable Company

Apple has overtaken Nvidia to become the world’s most valuable publicly traded company again, highlighting a shift in investor sentiment as markets reassess the costs and returns of the artificial intelligence boom.

Apple Regains The Top Spot

Apple (AAPL) ended Monday with a market capitalization of $4.95 trillion, surpassing Nvidia (NVDA), whose valuation fell 5% to $4.77 trillion. It was the first time since April 2025 that Apple closed a trading session ahead of the AI chipmaker.

The move comes ahead of Apple’s quarterly earnings report on Thursday, which investors will closely watch for updates on the company’s AI strategy and broader business performance.

Investors Reassess AI Spending

Nvidia’s decline reflects a broader pullback in AI-related semiconductor stocks as investors increasingly scrutinize the returns on heavy infrastructure spending. The company had held the top valuation since June 2025, when it overtook Microsoft, and briefly surpassed a $5 trillion market capitalization in October.

At the same time, investor interest has broadened beyond graphics processing units to other parts of the AI supply chain, including memory and storage technologies that support expanding data center capacity. Companies such as Micron Technology (MU), SK Hynix and Sandisk (SNDK) have benefited from that shift as demand for AI-related memory and storage infrastructure continues to grow.

Apple’s Capital Strategy Draws Attention

Apple shares have gained 24% so far this year, compared with a 4% increase for Nvidia.

Investors have viewed Apple’s more measured AI spending strategy favorably. Rather than investing heavily in its own AI infrastructure, the company has relied more extensively on leased computing capacity, limiting capital expenditure while continuing to expand its AI capabilities.

The contrast comes as markets increasingly focus on how quickly large AI investments can generate sustainable financial returns.

Earnings In Focus

Apple’s earnings report could also provide an update on the impact of the global memory chip shortage, which has emerged as a growing challenge for hardware manufacturers.

The company raised prices for some Mac and iPad models in June, becoming one of the first major consumer technology companies to publicly reflect higher memory component costs.

Investors will be watching whether Apple can sustain its recent market outperformance as AI-related infrastructure costs continue to rise and supply constraints persist.

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