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Saudi Arabia’s Economic Resilience Surpasses Forecasts Amid Robust Private Growth

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

June 10, 2025

Impressive First-Quarter Results

In a noteworthy performance, Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded by 3.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing earlier flash estimates of 2.7 percent issued by the Saudi General Authority for Statistics. This stronger-than-expected growth reflects a combination of a less severe contraction in the oil sector and robust performance in the non-oil segment, underscoring the momentum built through economic reforms.

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Sectoral Insights and Shifting Dynamics

Notably, oil-related GDP contracted by a marginal 0.5 percent, a significant improvement from the previously forecasted decline of 1.4 percent. Meanwhile, non-oil growth surged by 4.9 percent, outpacing initial estimates of 4.2 percent. Analysts, including Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, attribute these gains to sustained private sector dynamism and an adaptive response to lower oil prices through increased production.

Balancing Fiscal Pressures and Growth Initiatives

Despite these favorable figures, the kingdom faces fiscal challenges. With a widening budget deficit, driven in part by falling oil revenues, the International Monetary Fund has warned that maintaining a balance would require oil prices exceeding $90 per barrel, even as current prices hover around $60. In response, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan has signaled a forthcoming review of spending priorities to mitigate fiscal strain. Nonetheless, persistent project investments, fueled by large-scale events and ongoing development under Vision 2030, are expected to sustain economic momentum.

Vision 2030 and Future Prospects

Central to the kingdom’s long-term strategy is Vision 2030, a transformative initiative aimed at reducing oil dependency and boosting the private sector. With upcoming international events such as the 2029 Asian Winter Games and the 2034 World Cup, substantial investments in infrastructure and construction are set to bolster growth despite current fiscal challenges. Senior economist Daniel Richards of Emirates NBD remains optimistic, highlighting that the breadth of ongoing project spending will support growth in the near term.

Conclusion

The resilient performance of Saudi Arabia’s economy in the first quarter of 2025, coupled with strategic reforms under Vision 2030, demonstrates its ability to adapt and thrive amid global fluctuations. As the kingdom navigates fiscal pressures and leverages private sector strength, its economic trajectory continues to offer compelling insights for global market observers.

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Shein Targets $25 Billion Valuation In Hong Kong IPO As Growth Slows

by News Editor

August 17, 2026

Shein is reportedly targeting a valuation of around $25 billion in its planned Hong Kong IPO, a sharp decline from the nearly $100 billion valuation the online fashion retailer achieved in a 2022 fundraising round.

Two people familiar with the plans said the company was likely to target about $25 billion, while another source put the expected range at $25 billion to $28 billion based on the proposed price band.

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IPO Valuation Falls Sharply

Shein plans to sell up to 8% of its shares in the offering, according to a person familiar with the plans. At a $25 billion valuation, that would translate into an IPO of as much as $2 billion.

The latest target is also below the $30 billion to $40 billion valuation the company was seeking earlier this month as it began meeting with potential investors.

Founded in China in 2012 and now headquartered in Singapore, Shein sells low-cost clothing to consumers in about 160 countries. The company is expected to launch its long-awaited Hong Kong IPO later this week.

Trade Restrictions Weigh On Growth

Shein’s valuation has come under pressure as major markets tighten rules affecting low-cost e-commerce shipments. The European Union, for example, has moved to impose additional fees on cheap parcels from platforms such as Shein and Temu. EU Tightens Rules On Low-Cost E-Commerce Parcels

In the U.S., the removal of an import duty exemption for small packages has also affected the company. Shein reported a $99 million quarterly loss in the first quarter of 2026 as sales growth slowed, while a one-time accounting charge further weighed on its results. Shein Reports First-Quarter Loss Ahead Of IPO

Investors Question Shein’s Growth Prospects

The steep reduction in valuation reflects growing concerns over slower growth, higher trade costs, regulatory pressure and stronger competition across global e-commerce.

Some investors who reviewed Shein’s recent financial statements or attended IPO presentations told Reuters they were skeptical that the company could return to the growth rates that supported its $98.2 billion valuation in 2022. Shein’s Slowing Growth Tests Investor Appetite

A lower IPO valuation could also affect Shein’s existing investors. Under the terms of its IPO filing, the company may have to issue additional shares to certain pre-IPO investors if its valuation falls below agreed thresholds.