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Saudi Arabia’s Economic Growth: A Non-Oil Driven Success

In the first quarter, Saudi Arabia’s economy experienced a notable upswing, propelled by strong activity in the non-oil sector. As the kingdom continues its strategic pivot away from hydrocarbons, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.7% year-on-year, according to flash estimates from the government’s statistical authority.

Increased Demand for Data-Driven Insights

The statistical authority responded to mounting local demand for detailed data by expanding its data collection efforts and updating the nominal and real GDP series. Fahad al Dossari, President of GASTAT, highlighted the hunger for comprehensive statistics among stakeholders.

Non-Oil and Government Activities Drive Growth

With the weighting of the non-oil sector increased to align with international standards, non-oil activities surged by 4.2% in the first quarter, while government activities grew by 3.2%. Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, noted the contribution of government activity, spurred by a supported oil price, although cautioning about a potential pullback in government spending in the subsequent quarters.

Challenges and Outlook

Despite the promising start, oil-related activities fell by 1.4%, underlining the challenges of diversifying away from oil. As part of Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia requires substantial investment to bolster the private sector and expand its non-oil economy. A Reuters poll suggests that Brent crude will average $68.99 a barrel in 2025, a decrease from earlier forecasts, placing pressure on Saudi fiscal plans, which rely on higher oil prices to balance the budget.

MENA Venture Capital Stable As International Investor Activity Shifts

A Data-Led Analysis Of Investor Behavior In A War-Affected Region

Venture capital activity in the Middle East and North Africa remained relatively stable one month after the escalation of regional conflict. Early data, however, indicate changes in investor behavior rather than immediate shifts in funding totals. Initial signals are visible in investor participation, capital allocation, and deal pipeline activity.

Venture Markets And The Lag In Response

Funding announcements reflect decisions made months earlier, meaning that today’s figures do not capture the full impact of current events. Investors typically adjust strategies gradually, signaling future shifts long before they are immediately visible in total funding numbers.

International Capital As The Key Pressure Indicator

Participation of international investors remains a key indicator across the MENA venture market. Global capital has historically accounted for a significant share of funding in the region. Following global interest rate increases, international participation declined through 2023. This shift was reflected in lower cross-border deal activity, more cautious capital deployment, and longer fundraising timelines.

Implications For The Broader Startup Ecosystem

Changes in international investor activity affect multiple parts of the startup ecosystem. A recovery in participation was recorded in 2024 and continued into 2025, supporting funding activity and cross-border investment. If uncertainty persists, potential effects include slower investment decisions, reduced cross-border engagement, and extended fundraising cycles. International capital also plays a role in supporting larger funding rounds and access to global networks.

Next Steps For Stakeholders

International capital represents one of several factors shaping venture activity in the region. Its movement often precedes changes in late-stage funding, startup formation, and exit activity. Investors, policymakers, and ecosystem participants rely on data and scenario analysis to assess these trends and adjust strategies.

For A Deeper Insight

Further analysis on venture activity, capital flows, and geopolitical impact across the region is available in the full MAGNiTT report.

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