Cyprus is seeking to attract more visitors beyond the summer season, but rising aviation fuel prices and warnings of significantly higher airfares in 2027 could make the island a more expensive destination just as tourism revenues begin to weaken.

European aviation fuel prices have more than doubled since the start of 2026, increasing pressure on airlines to pass higher operating costs on to passengers. For Cyprus, where affordable air connections are essential to extending the tourist season, the trend could complicate efforts to attract visitors during the quieter winter months.

Follow THE FUTURE on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X and Telegram

Aviation Fuel Prices Reach New Highs

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the average European aviation fuel price reached $4.84 per gallon in October, up 114% from $2.26 in January and February. Prices peaked at $4.93 per gallon on October 27, the highest monthly level recorded since the Middle East crisis began, according to Eurocontrol.

The European Commission said on October 22 that jet fuel supplies were tight, although Europe was not facing an actual physical shortage. Further disruptions remained a risk.

The timing is particularly challenging as October marks the transition to winter flight schedules, when passenger demand typically softens and airlines have less scope to absorb higher costs.

Airlines Warn Of Higher Ticket Prices

Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has warned that airfares could increase by as much as 20% in 2027, potentially marking the largest annual rise in European aviation history.

The airline’s costs are already increasing. Net profit fell 15% in the first half of its financial year to €2.15 billion, while operating costs rose 10% to €7.69 billion, partly due to higher fuel expenditure.

Ryanair secured fuel at approximately $67 per barrel for this year through advance purchasing, but O’Leary expects prices to double next year as that protection expires. “We guarantee no fuel surcharges, but there is no doubt that air fares are going to rise significantly in 2027 because of much higher oil prices,” he said.

Brent crude closed at $109.86 per barrel on Friday, its highest level since May, before moving above $110 amid concerns over Middle East supplies.

Taxes And Operating Costs Reshape Airline Networks

Fuel is not the only factor affecting airline decisions. In October, Ryanair announced plans to cut 20 routes and more than one million seats from its Belgian winter schedule, reducing operations at Brussels Charleroi and Brussels Zaventem airports by six aircraft.

The airline linked the decision to Belgium’s planned aviation-tax increase, from €2 per ticket in January 2025 to €7 in January 2027. Ryanair estimated the cuts represented a $600 million reduction in investment and argued that higher taxes would make Belgium less competitive.

The carrier has also criticised the EU emissions trading system, arguing that it increases costs for flights within the bloc while flights arriving from outside the EU are exempt. Other airlines, including SAS and easyJet, have also reduced services this year.

Cyprus Tourism Revenues Show Signs Of Weakening

Higher airfares could pose a particular challenge for Cyprus, where ticket prices and connectivity play an important role in attracting visitors outside the summer season.

According to the Cyprus Statistical Service, tourism revenue fell 3.4% year on year in August 2026 to €562 million, while arrivals declined from 602,026 to 581,880.

Revenue for the first eight months of the year reached €2.32 billion, down 6.2% from €2.47 billion in the same period of 2025. This followed a stronger July, when tourism receipts increased 4.6% to €536.5 million.

Average spending per tourist was almost unchanged in August at €965.81, compared with €966.41 a year earlier. However, the average stay shortened from 9.2 to 8.9 days, while daily spending increased from €105.04 to €108.52.

The UK remained the largest source market, accounting for 30.5% of arrivals, followed by Israel at 23.3% and Poland at 6.3%. British arrivals fell to 177,603 from 193,091 a year earlier.

Global Air Travel Demand Remains Uneven

IATA’s September 2026 data showed global passenger demand declining 0.5% year on year, while available seat capacity fell 0.2%. International demand increased 0.4%, or 1.7% excluding the Middle East.

The global passenger load factor stood at 83.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from September 2025. IATA senior vice-president for sustainability and chief economist Marie Owens Thomsen attributed the decline to weakness in the Middle East and North America, while noting that most international markets had returned to growth.

Geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices are expected to continue influencing the market. In Europe, seasonal weakness was already visible: Eurocontrol data showed Greek flights declining 7% week on week during October 19–25, compared with an average 2.3% fall across Europe.

Keeping Cyprus Competitive Beyond Summer

For Cyprus, higher airfares, softer seasonal demand and declining tourism revenue pose a challenge to its ambitions to develop year-round tourism.

More expensive flights could make winter holidays less attractive, particularly for travellers sensitive to the overall cost of a trip. Maintaining airline connections will therefore not be enough on its own. Cyprus must also remain competitively priced as airlines reassess routes and passengers face higher travel costs.