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Rebuilding the U.S. Rare-Earth Supply Chain Amid Geo-Political Tensions

Rare Earths: The Cornerstone of Modern Industries

Rare earth elements, a group of 17 metals essential for advanced technologies, have become pivotal in the global race for technological supremacy. These materials, which power electric vehicles, wind turbines, defense systems, data centers, and high-tech consumer electronics, have long been at the heart of the U.S.-China trade conflict. Once leaders in production, the United States now finds itself reliant on China, which commands approximately 70% of mining and 90% of processing capacity.

China’s Market Dominance and Strategic Leverage

Industry experts emphasize China’s prolonged monopoly in rare earth production. Neha Mukherjee, Rare Earths Research Manager at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, notes that the extremely low production costs in China have effectively locked out competitors from establishing a foothold outside its borders. The situation was dramatically spotlighted when China initiated export controls in April, impacting key sectors such as the automotive industry. As Dewardric McNeal, Managing Director at Longview Global, explains, China has gradually refined its export control strategy, mirroring U.S. measures to counter perceived inequities.

Securing the U.S. Future: Strategic Investments and Partnerships

In response to growing supply vulnerabilities, the United States is now taking decisive action to develop a robust domestic rare-earth supply chain. The Department of Defense’s $400 million investment in MP Materials—the sole U.S. rare earth mining and production company located at Mountain Pass, California—signals a renewed commitment to reducing dependency on foreign sources. Bolstering this initiative, financial powerhouses Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have extended a $1 billion loan to support the expansion of MP Materials’ magnet production.

Innovative Expansion Beyond Traditional Boundaries

Innovation is not limited to MP Materials. Energy Fuels, historically known for its uranium operations, has transitioned into rare earths refinement at its White Mesa facility in Utah. The firm has already achieved commercial-scale production of neodymium-praseodymium oxide (NdPr) for manufacturing permanent magnets and is exploring the extraction of other heavy rare earths. CEO Mark Chalmers outlines ambitious plans to boost production capacity, underlining the strategic importance of diversifying rare earth outputs to meet increasing demand from government and commercial sectors.

A Path Forward in a Complex Global Environment

Despite these promising developments, breaking the long-standing dependence on China remains a significant challenge for the U.S. As domestic production scales and strategic investments continue, the evolution of the rare earth industry will be a critical barometer of broader U.S. resilience in global supply chains. The upcoming months will reveal whether these initiatives can forge a sustainable path towards energy security and technological leadership.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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