Improved Current Account Performance Amid Uncertainty

Cyprus recorded an improvement in its current account balance during 2025, with the deficit narrowing to 6.4% of GDP from 9.7% in 2023, according to analysis by Michail Vassileiadis. The improvement was primarily supported by continued expansion in the country’s services surplus, which reached a historic high of 25.2% of GDP compared with 23.5% a year earlier.

Sectoral Strength And Fiscal Dynamics

A moderate reduction in the goods deficit also contributed to the stronger current account position, although the deficit remained elevated at 19.5% of GDP. At the same time, the primary income deficit widened from 10.8% to 11.2% of GDP, reflecting higher outward flows linked to direct investment profits. The secondary income balance improved slightly, moving to a deficit of 0.9% of GDP.

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Robust Contributions From Key Economic Sectors

Strong contributions continued coming from intellectual property, tourism and financial services, which generated surpluses equal to 5.3%, 5.7% and 6.5% of GDP, respectively. Although transport and other business services weakened compared with the previous year, ICT services remained stable at 7.5% of GDP, continuing to support economic growth between 2021 and 2025.

Export-Import Dynamics And Structural Shifts

In value terms, the goods deficit widened by 2.5%, driven by a 1.4% increase in imports alongside a 0.2% decline in exports. Petroleum products accounted for 53.9% of the increase in imports, while pharmaceuticals represented another 16.5%. At the same time, exports of refined petroleum products surged by 298.8%, helping offset the impact of a sharp decline in ship exports.

Risks From Geopolitical Instability And Future Outlook

The analysis noted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue posing risks for sectors including tourism and transport. A slowdown in European economic activity or prolonged regional instability could affect tourism revenues and disrupt shipping activity. The report also noted that Cyprus benefited from safe-haven inflows during earlier periods of regional instability, including the Gaza conflict between 2023 and 2025, although prolonged uncertainty could weigh on investment activity and increase market caution.

Conclusion

Cyprus’ recent fiscal improvements, supported by structural reforms and successive sovereign credit rating upgrades, have bolstered investor confidence, enabling a return to A-tier status. Nonetheless, the country faces a delicate balancing act as it navigates rising energy prices and the potential market turbulence induced by external geopolitical pressures. Strategic policy measures and adaptive economic planning will be critical in maintaining this positive momentum against a backdrop of persistent uncertainty.