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OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Forecast For Fourth Time In 2024

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again revised its forecast for global oil demand, marking the fourth consecutive downward adjustment this year. The revision reflects economic slowdowns in major markets, including China and India, which are experiencing sluggish growth rates.

OPEC’s latest monthly report projects a growth in oil demand of 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, down from last month’s forecast of 1.93 million bpd. Next year’s demand growth forecast has also been reduced, from 1.64 million bpd to 1.54 million bpd. Much of the revised outlook is attributed to China’s economic slowdown, which has significantly impacted fuel demand; diesel consumption in China dropped year-on-year for the seventh month in a row as of September.

The latest forecast presents a notable challenge for OPEC+, which includes key allies like Russia. Earlier this month, the alliance opted to delay its planned increase in output, initially set for December, in response to falling oil prices.

Following the release of OPEC’s report, oil prices eased. Brent crude currently trades below $73 per barrel, while U.S. light crude is hovering just above $64 per barrel.

OPEC’s forecast remains more optimistic compared to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which anticipates a much lower demand increase of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The IEA, representing industrialized countries, is set to release an updated report on Thursday, which may further adjust its projections based on evolving market dynamics and energy transition trends.

EU Moderates Emissions While Sustaining Economic Momentum

The European Union witnessed a modest decline in greenhouse gas emissions in the second quarter of 2025, as reported by Eurostat. Emissions across the EU registered at 772 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalents, marking a 0.4 percent reduction from 775 million tonnes in the same period of 2024. Concurrently, the EU’s gross domestic product rose by 1.3 percent, reinforcing the ongoing decoupling between economic growth and environmental impact.

Sector-By-Sector Performance

Within the broader statistics on emissions by economic activity, the energy sector—specifically electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply—experienced the most significant drop, declining by 2.9 percent. In comparison, the manufacturing sector and transportation and storage both achieved a 0.4 percent reduction. However, household emissions bucked the trend, increasing by 1.0 percent over the same period.

National Highlights And Notable Exceptions

Among EU member states, 12 reported a reduction in emissions, while 14 saw increases, and Estonia’s figures remained static. Notably, Slovenia, the Netherlands, and Finland recorded the most pronounced declines at 8.6 percent, 5.9 percent, and 4.2 percent respectively. Of the 12 countries reducing emissions, three—Finland, Germany, and Luxembourg—also experienced a contraction in GDP growth.

Dual Achievement: Environmental And Economic Goals

In an encouraging development, nine member states, including Cyprus, managed to lower their emissions while maintaining economic expansion. This dual achievement—reducing environmental impact while fostering economic activity—is a trend that has increasingly influenced EU climate policies. Other nations that successfully balanced these outcomes include Austria, Denmark, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovenia, and Sweden.

Conclusion

As the EU continues to navigate its climate commitments, these quarterly insights underscore a gradual yet significant shift toward balancing emissions reductions with robust economic growth. The evolving landscape highlights the critical need for sustainable strategies that not only mitigate environmental risks but also invigorate economic resilience.

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