The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again revised its forecast for global oil demand, marking the fourth consecutive downward adjustment this year. The revision reflects economic slowdowns in major markets, including China and India, which are experiencing sluggish growth rates.
OPEC’s latest monthly report projects a growth in oil demand of 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, down from last month’s forecast of 1.93 million bpd. Next year’s demand growth forecast has also been reduced, from 1.64 million bpd to 1.54 million bpd. Much of the revised outlook is attributed to China’s economic slowdown, which has significantly impacted fuel demand; diesel consumption in China dropped year-on-year for the seventh month in a row as of September.
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The latest forecast presents a notable challenge for OPEC+, which includes key allies like Russia. Earlier this month, the alliance opted to delay its planned increase in output, initially set for December, in response to falling oil prices.
Following the release of OPEC’s report, oil prices eased. Brent crude currently trades below $73 per barrel, while U.S. light crude is hovering just above $64 per barrel.
OPEC’s forecast remains more optimistic compared to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which anticipates a much lower demand increase of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The IEA, representing industrialized countries, is set to release an updated report on Thursday, which may further adjust its projections based on evolving market dynamics and energy transition trends.
