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OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Forecast For Fourth Time In 2024

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again revised its forecast for global oil demand, marking the fourth consecutive downward adjustment this year. The revision reflects economic slowdowns in major markets, including China and India, which are experiencing sluggish growth rates.

OPEC’s latest monthly report projects a growth in oil demand of 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, down from last month’s forecast of 1.93 million bpd. Next year’s demand growth forecast has also been reduced, from 1.64 million bpd to 1.54 million bpd. Much of the revised outlook is attributed to China’s economic slowdown, which has significantly impacted fuel demand; diesel consumption in China dropped year-on-year for the seventh month in a row as of September.

The latest forecast presents a notable challenge for OPEC+, which includes key allies like Russia. Earlier this month, the alliance opted to delay its planned increase in output, initially set for December, in response to falling oil prices.

Following the release of OPEC’s report, oil prices eased. Brent crude currently trades below $73 per barrel, while U.S. light crude is hovering just above $64 per barrel.

OPEC’s forecast remains more optimistic compared to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which anticipates a much lower demand increase of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The IEA, representing industrialized countries, is set to release an updated report on Thursday, which may further adjust its projections based on evolving market dynamics and energy transition trends.

Cyprus Emerges As A Leading Household Consumer In The European Union

Overview Of Eurostat Findings

A recent Eurostat survey, which adjusts real consumption per capita using purchasing power standards (PPS), has positioned Cyprus among the highest household consumers in the European Union. In 2024, Cyprus recorded a per capita expenditure of 21,879 PPS, a figure that underscores the country’s robust material well-being relative to other member states.

Comparative Consumption Analysis

Luxembourg claimed the top spot with an impressive 28,731 PPS per inhabitant. Trailing closely were Ireland (23,534 PPS), Belgium (23,437 PPS), Germany (23,333 PPS), Austria (23,094 PPS), the Netherlands (22,805 PPS), Denmark (22,078 PPS), and Italy (21,986 PPS), with Cyprus rounding out this elite group at 21,879 PPS. These figures not only highlight the high expenditure across these nations but also reflect differences in purchasing power and living standards across the region.

Contrasting Trends In Household Spending

The survey also shed light on countries with lower household spending levels. Hungary and Bulgaria reported the smallest average expenditures, at 14,621 PPS and 15,025 PPS respectively. Meanwhile, Greece and Portugal recorded 18,752 PPS and 19,328 PPS, respectively. Noteworthy figures from France (20,462 PPS), Finland (20,158 PPS), Lithuania (19,261 PPS), Malta (19,622 PPS), Slovenia (18,269 PPS), Slovakia (17,233 PPS), Latvia (16,461 PPS), Estonia (16,209 PPS), and the Czech Republic (16,757 PPS) further illustrate the disparate economic landscapes within the EU. Spain’s figure, however, was an outlier at 10,899 PPS, suggesting the need for further data clarification.

Growth Trends And Economic Implications

Eurostat’s longitudinal analysis from 2019 to 2024 revealed that Croatia, Bulgaria, and Romania experienced the fastest annual increases in real consumer spending, each growing by at least 3.8%. In contrast, five member states, with the Czech Republic experiencing the largest drop at an average annual decline of 1.3%, indicate a varied economic recovery narrative across the continent.

This comprehensive survey not only provides valuable insights into current household consumption patterns but also offers a robust framework for policymakers and business leaders to understand economic shifts across the EU. Such data is integral for strategic decision-making in markets that are increasingly defined by evolving consumer behavior and regional economic resilience.

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