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Oil Prices Begin Week On A Positive Note 

Oil markets opened the week with gains, buoyed by increased industrial activity in China and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. China’s manufacturing expansion and rising concerns over regional supply disruptions have provided critical support to prices.

Key Developments

  • Brent crude futures climbed 0.84% to reach $72.44 per barrel.
  • US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.88%, trading at $68.57 per barrel.

The rally followed encouraging data from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, showing November manufacturing activity expanding at its fastest pace in five months. This uptick reflects the effectiveness of economic stimulus measures implemented by Chinese authorities.

Simultaneously, the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East was undermined as Israel resumed airstrikes on Lebanon, heightening concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply chains.

While both benchmarks experienced over 3% losses last week as the earlier truce between Israel and Hezbollah eased supply fears, analysts see signs of stability. The improving economic activity in China offers a glimmer of hope for sustained demand in the face of global uncertainty.

The Middle East remains a focal point for market watchers. Israel’s strikes on Lebanon resulted in injuries, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, while airstrikes also intensified in Syria, adding another layer of complexity to regional dynamics.

What’s Ahead

Looking to 2025, concerns over a potential oversupply loom, despite expectations that OPEC+ may extend production cuts beyond January. The oil cartel will convene this week to determine its production strategy for the months ahead. Analysts anticipate that extended cuts could help OPEC+ navigate uncertainties surrounding the newly elected Trump administration’s trade policies, which are expected to include tighter tariffs and heightened trade restrictions.

As markets remain cautious, the interplay of Chinese industrial growth, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ decisions will likely shape oil price movements in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin Surges 23% In A Week As Investor Optimism Returns

Bitcoin was on track for a weekly gain of around 23% on Friday as a series of positive macroeconomic and policy developments boosted investor sentiment.

The cryptocurrency was trading about 6% higher at roughly $77,000, up from around $62,800 at the start of the week. Crypto-related stocks also rallied, with Coinbase and Circle gaining more than 9%, while Strategy rose 7%.

Macro Factors Fuel Rally

Bitcoin’s latest surge began Wednesday after Treasury yields fell sharply following a major intervention by the U.S. Treasury in the bond market. Lower yields eased pressure on risk assets and helped trigger a broader move into cryptocurrencies.

The rally was further amplified by a major short squeeze. Around $2.7 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated, according to CoinGlass.

Max Stuedlein, head of Partnerships at Sygnum APAC, said the move reflected an alignment of macroeconomic and policy catalysts, including the Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated government debt.

Clarity Act Boosts Sentiment

Investor confidence improved further on Thursday as the White House and crypto industry leaders made a final push to advance the Clarity Act in the coming weeks.

The legislation is widely viewed as a potential catalyst for the crypto market, although its chances of passing remain relatively limited.

Despite the rally, bitcoin remains well below its 2026 high of $94,820 reached in January and its all-time high of $126,198, set last October.

Analysts See More Volatility Ahead

Lucy Gazmararian, founder and managing partner at Token Bay Capital, said the crypto market may be approaching the end of its bear cycle.

She expects bitcoin could experience one more decline of around 20% before the market turns, pointing to historical cycles and the recent liquidation of heavily leveraged short positions.

Gazmararian also described bitcoin as a long-term hedge against monetary debasement, while warning that its short-term price remains highly volatile and driven by market cycles.

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