The global offshore wind industry is grappling with significant challenges threatening to derail ambitious government targets worldwide. A confluence of factors, including soaring costs, project delays, and limited investment, has cast doubt on the sector’s ability to meet its lofty goals, potentially hampering efforts to combat climate change.

Industry Struggles Amid Rising Costs and Delays

Recent data paints a sobering picture of the industry’s current state. Offshore wind farms now face a global average cost of $230 per megawatt-hour (MWh), marking a 30-40% increase over the past two years. This figure is more than triple the average cost of onshore wind facilities, which stands at $75/MWh.

The impact of these escalating costs is evident in the actions of major industry players. BP is considering divesting a stake in its offshore wind business, while Equinor has abandoned investments in Vietnam, Spain, and Portugal. GE Vernova, a leading turbine supplier, has halted new orders due to unfavourable market conditions.

Global Targets Slipping Away

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) had projected that offshore wind capacity needed to reach 494 GW by 2030 to meet global renewable energy goals. However, IRENA’s Director-General now estimates the industry will fall short of this target by a third. Other research firms suggest that 500 GW of offshore wind installations may not be achieved until after 2035.

Regional Challenges and Political Uncertainties

In the United States, the offshore wind sector faces additional hurdles. Despite ambitious goals set by the Biden administration, the industry has been plagued by project cancellations, suspended auctions, and construction setbacks. The potential shift in political leadership following the recent election has further heightened concerns about the sector’s future.

Europe is also struggling to meet its targets. Major markets like the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands are expected to achieve only 60-70% of their goals. The European Union as a whole is projected to reach just 54 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, falling far short of the 120 GW pledged by North Sea countries.

China: A Lone Bright Spot

Bucking the global trend, China has emerged as a leader in offshore wind development. Backed by government subsidies and access to locally produced components, China accounted for over half of global offshore wind installations in 2023. The country is expected to continue its rapid expansion, with projections of 11-16 GW of annual installations in the coming years.

Industry Calls for Support

As the offshore wind sector navigates these choppy waters, industry leaders are calling for increased government support and policy interventions. While acknowledging the risk of missing targets, experts emphasize that with the right policies in place, the industry can still make significant strides towards its goals.

The coming years will be crucial in determining whether the offshore wind industry can overcome its current challenges and play the pivotal role envisioned in the global transition to renewable energy.