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Nvidia Faces Historic Market Loss As DeepSeek Dents Confidence In AI’s Future

Nvidia experienced the largest single-day market cap drop in history on Monday, as its stock tumbled by 17%, shedding nearly $600 billion in value. This staggering loss is directly linked to a new development in the AI space—DeepSeek, a Chinese AI firm that unveiled its version of ChatGPT, raising concerns over the cost-efficiency and competitive positioning of U.S. AI companies.

Key Details

Nvidia’s shares experienced a severe decline, marking its worst daily percentage drop since March 2020, during the initial shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. On Monday, Nvidia lost a record-breaking $589 billion in market capitalization, more than doubling the previous one-day loss of $279 billion in September 2024. To put it into perspective, this is significantly more than Meta’s $251 billion market cap loss in February 2022.

As a result, Nvidia’s market valuation dropped from $3.5 trillion to $2.9 trillion, slipping behind Apple and Microsoft as the world’s most valuable company. Nvidia’s dramatic fall led a broader retreat in U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 losing 1.5% and the Nasdaq dropping 3.1%. Other major players in the AI industry, such as chipmakers Arm and Broadcom, alongside Oracle, saw their stocks plummet by at least 10%.

The DeepSeek Effect

The cause of Nvidia’s catastrophic loss lies in DeepSeek’s release of its large-language model, which has cast doubt on the continued dominance of U.S. companies in generative AI. Initially, this might not seem like a negative development for Nvidia, as DeepSeek’s model was also powered by Nvidia’s powerful graphics processing units (GPUs), just like many other AI technologies. However, DeepSeek revealed that it spent just $5.6 million on Nvidia’s technology to develop its model. While experts believe this figure is likely a significant underestimation, it still calls into question the very foundation of Nvidia’s meteoric stock rise.

In recent years, Nvidia’s profits have skyrocketed, with projections indicating net profits could soar from $4.8 billion in 2022 to $66.7 billion in 2024, largely due to the soaring demand for its high-priced GPUs, which can cost up to $25,000 each. U.S. tech giants such as Meta, Tesla, and OpenAI have been among Nvidia’s biggest customers. However, if companies like these can replicate DeepSeek’s cost-efficient approach by using cheaper GPUs, Nvidia could face significant challenges in maintaining its market dominance.

As Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research pointed out, this shift could be an unwelcome development for Nvidia.

Surprising Statistic

Nvidia’s near-$600 billion market cap loss on Monday exceeds the market values of all but 13 American companies, surpassing industry giants like UnitedHealth, Exxon Mobil, and Costco.

CEO’s Losses

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang saw his wealth take a massive hit, losing $21 billion in a single day. His net worth dropped from $124.4 billion to $103.1 billion, according to Forbes estimates. Huang remains the largest individual shareholder in Nvidia, owning a 3% stake in the company.

Nvidia’s colossal market cap loss highlights the growing uncertainties in the AI sector, as DeepSeek’s cost-effective alternative to American AI models threatens to disrupt the industry’s balance. With AI becoming an increasingly competitive and global field, Nvidia’s future may hinge on how it adapts to these emerging challenges.

Bank Of England Holds Rates At 3.75% In Split Vote As Inflation Risks Rise

The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% on Thursday, but the decision was not unanimous. In a 6-3 vote, the Monetary Policy Committee kept rates unchanged, while three members backed a 25-basis-point increase to 4%. Renewed energy price pressures have added to concerns that inflation could remain elevated.

Inflation Pressures Remain

Policymakers said inflation “is likely to rise further over coming quarters,” citing higher and more volatile crude oil and refined energy prices since the conflict began.

So far, there has been “little evidence” of significant second-round effects, such as broader wage and price increases. Inflation risks, however, are now “tilted to the upside” and have increased since the July Monetary Policy Report.

Energy Prices Add To Inflation Risks

Brent crude has risen 36% since July, reaching $106 a barrel on Sept. 14, while UK wholesale gas prices increased 78% to 207 pence per therm.

Higher energy costs can feed into transport, production and household expenses, raising costs across supply chains. Refinery pressures have also pushed crack spreads, the difference between refined fuel and crude prices, well above pre-conflict levels.

Economy Shows Resilience

Despite the inflation risks, UK economic activity has held up slightly better than the Bank expected. A softer labor market and higher borrowing costs are expected to help reduce inflation over time.

Previous monetary tightening is still working through the economy, according to policymakers. So far, the latest energy shock has not produced clear evidence of a broader wage-price spiral.

Major Central Banks Take Different Paths

The decision comes during a busy period for global monetary policy. The Federal Reserve raised rates Wednesday to 3.75%-4% in its first increase since 2023, while the European Central Bank recently lifted its deposit rate to 2.5%.

The Bank of Japan is due to announce its decision Friday, with markets expecting a rate increase. Thursday’s split vote shows that pressure for tighter policy remains within the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

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