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Nvidia Faces Historic Market Loss As DeepSeek Dents Confidence In AI’s Future

Nvidia experienced the largest single-day market cap drop in history on Monday, as its stock tumbled by 17%, shedding nearly $600 billion in value. This staggering loss is directly linked to a new development in the AI space—DeepSeek, a Chinese AI firm that unveiled its version of ChatGPT, raising concerns over the cost-efficiency and competitive positioning of U.S. AI companies.

Key Details

Nvidia’s shares experienced a severe decline, marking its worst daily percentage drop since March 2020, during the initial shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. On Monday, Nvidia lost a record-breaking $589 billion in market capitalization, more than doubling the previous one-day loss of $279 billion in September 2024. To put it into perspective, this is significantly more than Meta’s $251 billion market cap loss in February 2022.

As a result, Nvidia’s market valuation dropped from $3.5 trillion to $2.9 trillion, slipping behind Apple and Microsoft as the world’s most valuable company. Nvidia’s dramatic fall led a broader retreat in U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 losing 1.5% and the Nasdaq dropping 3.1%. Other major players in the AI industry, such as chipmakers Arm and Broadcom, alongside Oracle, saw their stocks plummet by at least 10%.

The DeepSeek Effect

The cause of Nvidia’s catastrophic loss lies in DeepSeek’s release of its large-language model, which has cast doubt on the continued dominance of U.S. companies in generative AI. Initially, this might not seem like a negative development for Nvidia, as DeepSeek’s model was also powered by Nvidia’s powerful graphics processing units (GPUs), just like many other AI technologies. However, DeepSeek revealed that it spent just $5.6 million on Nvidia’s technology to develop its model. While experts believe this figure is likely a significant underestimation, it still calls into question the very foundation of Nvidia’s meteoric stock rise.

In recent years, Nvidia’s profits have skyrocketed, with projections indicating net profits could soar from $4.8 billion in 2022 to $66.7 billion in 2024, largely due to the soaring demand for its high-priced GPUs, which can cost up to $25,000 each. U.S. tech giants such as Meta, Tesla, and OpenAI have been among Nvidia’s biggest customers. However, if companies like these can replicate DeepSeek’s cost-efficient approach by using cheaper GPUs, Nvidia could face significant challenges in maintaining its market dominance.

As Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research pointed out, this shift could be an unwelcome development for Nvidia.

Surprising Statistic

Nvidia’s near-$600 billion market cap loss on Monday exceeds the market values of all but 13 American companies, surpassing industry giants like UnitedHealth, Exxon Mobil, and Costco.

CEO’s Losses

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang saw his wealth take a massive hit, losing $21 billion in a single day. His net worth dropped from $124.4 billion to $103.1 billion, according to Forbes estimates. Huang remains the largest individual shareholder in Nvidia, owning a 3% stake in the company.

Nvidia’s colossal market cap loss highlights the growing uncertainties in the AI sector, as DeepSeek’s cost-effective alternative to American AI models threatens to disrupt the industry’s balance. With AI becoming an increasingly competitive and global field, Nvidia’s future may hinge on how it adapts to these emerging challenges.

Capital Deployment Emerges As Key Growth Driver For Greek Banks

UBS highlighted Eurobank and Alpha Bank in a report shared by Greek business outlet Newmoney, as investors increasingly focus on the lenders’ regional footprints, including Cyprus. Greek banks remain among the clearest beneficiaries of the country’s economic recovery, while more disciplined capital deployment could create further value for shareholders.

Despite recovering from lows during the Middle East crisis, Greek banks continue to trade at a discount to European peers. UBS sees potential for a rerating as lenders combine selective acquisitions with higher shareholder distributions.

Strong Fundamentals Support The Outlook

UBS expects performing corporate lending to grow about 8% annually between 2025 and 2028, while net interest margins are believed to have reached their low point. Improving net interest income and fee income should support earnings, while non-performing exposures and the cost of risk have fallen more than expected.

Greece is also expected to sustain GDP growth of roughly 2% annually, supported by investment backed by the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility. The country has received around €25 billion of the €36 billion available, while UBS forecasts a primary surplus of up to 3.5% of GDP in 2025 and public debt falling to 138% of GDP in 2026 and 133% in 2027.

Eurobank And Alpha Bank Stand Out In Cyprus

Eurobank drew particular attention following its acquisition of Hellenic Bank in 2025, which expanded its presence in Cyprus. UBS sees further growth potential across south-eastern Europe and considers the Hellenic Bank and Eurolife acquisitions positive for profitability and return on tangible equity.

Eurobank received a buy rating and a €5.10 price target, implying 11.7% upside. Alpha Bank also received a buy recommendation, with a €4.90 target implying 8.7% upside, supported by improving profitability, value-enhancing acquisitions and its share buyback program.

Piraeus And National Bank Offer Further Upside

Piraeus Bank was UBS’s top pick, with a buy rating and a €12 price target implying 18.8% upside. The bank cited long-term growth prospects, improving return on tangible equity and the expected acquisition of National Insurance, which would expand its financial services and bancassurance platform.

National Bank of Greece received a buy recommendation and an €18.70 target, implying 12.7% upside. UBS cited its profitability, capital position and credit quality, while its agreement with Allianz could provide further support to earnings and return on tangible equity.

Capital Discipline To Shape The Next Phase

UBS expects stronger lending, fee income, lower credit risks and continued economic growth to support Greek banks. However, the report argues that capital allocation will increasingly determine performance as lenders move beyond balance-sheet expansion.

For Eurobank and Alpha Bank, regional expansion, acquisitions, improving profitability and shareholder returns are expected to drive the next phase, while UBS sees further upside across the sector as lending and capital distributions strengthen.

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