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Morningstar DBRS Elevates Greece’s Credit Rating to ‘BBB’ with Stable Outlook

DBRS Morningstar has raised Greece’s credit rating to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB low,’ citing improved banking stability and the country’s ongoing efforts to reduce its general government debt. This upgrade marks another milestone for Greece, which saw its investment grade status reinstated by DBRS in 2023, with a shift in the outlook from positive to stable.

The credit agency highlighted that Greece’s banking sector, once burdened by legacy risks, has shown considerable recovery, contributing to the country’s positive fiscal performance. Debt reduction has been a key driver of this progress. Since 2020, Greece’s debt, the highest in the eurozone, has been slashed by more than 40 percentage points, now standing at 154% of GDP in 2024, with projections for further declines.

Looking ahead, Greece is expecting a 2.3% growth in economic output for 2025—more than double the eurozone’s forecasted average. The country is also set to achieve a primary budget surplus of 2.4% of GDP, driven by strong tourism revenues and increased investments. As a result, Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall below 140% by 2027, marking a significant improvement.

This credit rating upgrade is part of a broader trend of positive assessments from other major rating agencies, including S&P Global and Fitch, following a period of 13 years in the junk category. However, Moody’s remains cautious, still rating Greece just below investment grade.

Greek banks, once reeling from the debt crisis and nationalization in 2009, are now on a steady recovery path, posting profits for the first time in years. The European Central Bank gave the green light for dividend payments to resume in 2024, marking a key milestone in the country’s financial recovery.

ECB Raises Deposit Facility Rate For First Time In Nearly Two Years

Economic Shift: ECB Reverses Years Of Declining Rates

The European Central Bank (ECB) confirmed its first interest rate increase in nearly two years, raising the deposit facility rate in response to inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. Marking a shift in monetary policy, the move follows a period of rate cuts aimed at supporting economic activity and easing financing conditions.

Reevaluation Of Bank Liquidity Strategies

Although the immediate impact will be felt by only part of the borrowing market, the decision carries broader implications for banks. During the period of lower rates, banks maintained significant amounts of excess liquidity with the ECB as returns on these funds declined alongside deposit rates. With the deposit facility rate increasing by 0.25 percentage points to 2.25% from 2.00%, returns on surplus liquidity are expected to improve.

Higher interest rates, however, could also increase borrowing costs and influence lending conditions across the banking sector.

Transitioning Investment Approaches And Market Dynamics

Banks had already begun diversifying the use of excess liquidity through investments in bonds and by expanding lending activities.

Successive reductions in the deposit facility rate from 3.00% at the end of 2024 through four consecutive cuts in early 2025 reflected a more accommodative policy stance as inflation pressures moderated.

Sectoral Impact And Future Outlook

Data from the ECB’s 2025 monetary policy report show that liquidity in the Cypriot banking system declined from €19.2 billion at the end of 2024 to €18.6 billion by the close of 2025. Despite the reduction, liquidity levels remained elevated. Outstanding loans increased from €27.6 billion to €31.7 billion, while deposits recorded a slight decline. Customer deposits continued to account for the vast majority of funding. By the fourth quarter of 2025, they represented 95% of total liabilities, highlighting their importance as the banking sector’s primary source of financing.

Changes in ECB rates are expected to influence how banks manage liquidity and allocate capital as monetary conditions evolve.

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