Morgan Stanley has tempered its near-term optimism on humanoid robots, saying the industry’s biggest challenge may extend beyond technology to public acceptance, even as it maintains its forecast for Chinese shipments this year.

Morgan Stanley Takes A More Cautious View

Morgan Stanley has repeatedly raised its forecast for China’s humanoid robot shipments in 2026, increasing it from 14,000 units in January to 28,000 and later to 50,000. However, in a note published on Tuesday, the bank said large-scale adoption may depend not only on technological progress but also on how humanoid robots are perceived by the public.

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Public Acceptance Could Shape Adoption

The bank said humanoid robots are often presented as direct replacements for workers rather than as tools for hazardous, repetitive or labour-constrained tasks. According to the analysts, public acceptance could become as important as technical performance because the way robots are positioned may influence both policymakers and adoption by businesses.

Morgan Stanley also said investors, including the bank itself, may have underestimated the extent to which humanoid robots could complement rather than replace human workers. The analysts pointed to potential benefits including easing labour shortages, improving the economics of new manufacturing facilities and creating demand for maintenance, operations and other supporting roles.

Investors Shift Focus To Commercial Returns

The bank said investors are becoming less focused on demonstration videos and prototypes and are placing greater emphasis on measurable returns on investment. While commercial adoption is expanding, Morgan Stanley described it as both “early” and “narrow,” suggesting the next stage of growth will depend on proving productivity gains in real-world applications.

U.S. Restrictions Add Pressure

Morgan Stanley said geopolitical developments could also weigh on the sector. On Tuesday, the Trump administration banned imports of new Chinese humanoid and quadruped robots, citing national security concerns. According to the bank, the restrictions could increase research and development costs because low-cost Chinese humanoid robots are widely used in the United States for model development and testing.

Despite the additional challenges, Morgan Stanley maintained its forecast of 50,000 Chinese humanoid robot shipments by the end of 2026.