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MIT Study Reveals AI’s Power To Reshape U.S. Labor Market With $1.2 Trillion In Wage Exposure

Introduction

A recent study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has unveiled that artificial intelligence currently has the capability to replace up to 11.7% of the U.S. labor market—potentially affecting $1.2 trillion in wages across critical sectors such as finance, healthcare, and professional services. This research, undertaken in collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory, provides an eye-opening look into how advanced technologies are reshaping modern workforces.

Developing The Iceberg Index

The study leverages an innovative labor simulation tool known as the Iceberg Index. By modeling the interactions of 151 million U.S. workers, the index offers a granular view of how AI impacts job tasks and skill sets across diverse geographic regions—from major coastal hubs to inland and rural areas. The simulation, which maps more than 32,000 skills across 923 occupations in 3,000 counties, goes beyond the traditional focus on tech layoffs to reveal substantial exposure in fields such as human resources, logistics, finance, and office administration.

Policy Applications And State Collaborations

The Iceberg Index is not a crystal ball for predicting exact job losses; instead, it serves as a critical policy tool for visualizing potential scenarios. By creating what one researcher described as a “digital twin” of the U.S. labor market, the tool enables policymakers to explore various if‑then scenarios and align targeted investments in training and infrastructure. Several states, including Tennessee, North Carolina, and Utah, have already integrated the insights into their strategic planning. For instance, Tennessee cited the index in its official AI Workforce Action Plan, while North Carolina’s state legislator, Sen. DeAndrea Salvador, emphasized the value of county-level analysis in informing localized economic strategies.

Conclusion

In an era where AI continues to transform traditional employment structures, the Iceberg Index offers a forward-thinking framework for understanding and mitigating the risks. As state governments and business leaders grapple with overlapping regulatory and economic challenges, this research provides a data-driven roadmap for prioritizing investments and preparing for the inevitable shifts in the labor landscape. With its capacity to simulate changes before they materialize in the real economy, this tool is poised to become indispensable in strategic workforce planning and economic policy development.

Rolls-Royce Raises Guidance As Defense And Power Systems Drive Growth

Rolls-Royce raised its full-year profit and cash flow guidance after reporting stronger-than-expected first-half results, supported by growth across its civil aerospace, defense and power systems businesses.

Underlying operating profit rose 46% year on year to £2.5 billion ($3.3 billion) in the first six months of 2026, while revenue increased more than 24% to £11.3 billion.

The company now expects full-year underlying operating profit of £4.7 billion to £4.9 billion, up from previous guidance of £4 billion to £4.2 billion. It also raised its free cash flow forecast to £3.8 billion to £4 billion, compared with £3.6 billion to £3.8 billion previously.

Shares rose as much as 6% in early trading before paring gains to trade about 4% higher.

Data Center Demand Supports Power Systems

Chief Financial Officer Helen McCabe told CNBC that orders in Rolls-Royce’s data center power business increased by more than 50% in the first half as operators invested in backup and on-site power systems.

The company has benefited from growing demand for power infrastructure as data center operators expand capacity.

Defense Spending Provides Additional Support

McCabe also said Rolls-Royce expects to benefit from higher defense spending in the U.K. and across NATO countries. She cited the U.K.’s long-term defense investment plan, which provides funding visibility through 2030 and beyond.

“We’ve had very positive initial conversations with the new government,” McCabe said, adding that the company supports its focus on growth, defense and industrial manufacturing.

Turnaround Continues

Chief Executive Tufan Erginbilgic said the company’s transformation strategy continued to deliver results. “Our transformation continues to deliver,” he said in a statement. “We have unlocked new growth opportunities across the Group.”

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