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Minimum Wages Have Outpaced Food Inflation Across Most Of Europe — But Not Everywhere

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

September 28, 2026

Food prices have climbed sharply across Europe over the past five years. In most of the 26 countries examined by Euronews Business, however, minimum wages have risen even faster, giving workers greater purchasing power at the supermarket — at least on paper.

Food Inflation Has Remained Persistent Across Europe

According to Eurostat, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 34% across the European Union between August 2021 and August 2026. The pace of inflation varied widely. Hungary recorded the steepest rise in the bloc at 57%, followed by Bulgaria at 54% and Romania at 53%. Cyprus saw the mildest increase, at 21%.

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Looking beyond the EU, Switzerland posted the smallest increase among the 35 European countries in the comparison, at just 5%. Turkey stood apart entirely: food and non-alcoholic beverage prices surged by 752% over the same period.

Turkey Remains The Outlier

Turkey’s extraordinary rise reflects years of entrenched inflation, compounded by a steep decline in the lira that made imported goods and inputs significantly more expensive. That currency weakness was aggravated by a series of interest-rate cuts beginning in 2021, even as inflation accelerated. Lower rates reduced the currency’s appeal, adding further pressure to the exchange rate. Although Turkey reversed course in 2023 and raised rates sharply, prices continued to climb.

The picture is less dramatic but still significant across the EU. Food prices were already rising before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the war intensified the pressure by pushing up energy, fertiliser and transport costs while disrupting agricultural markets. Those higher input costs eventually filtered through to supermarket shelves.

Among Europe’s largest economies, food prices rose by 25% in France, 30% in Italy, 34% in Germany and 35% in Spain between August 2021 and August 2026.

Minimum Wages Have Grown Faster In Many Markets

Monthly gross minimum wages also increased over the same period in many countries with statutory minimum pay floors. In the EU, Hungary recorded the largest increase at 93%. Germany’s minimum wage rose by 46%, Spain’s by 29% and France’s by 20%, all measured in local currency terms.

Turkey again posted the most dramatic change among the countries compared, with minimum wages rising 823% over five years. Serbia and Montenegro also saw more than a doubling, at 103% and 102% respectively.

Pay Rises Do Not Always Translate Into Greater Purchasing Power

Higher wages, however, do not automatically mean workers can afford more food. The key measure here is not the difference between wage growth and food inflation, but how much food a monthly gross minimum wage could actually buy in August 2021 versus August 2026.

That distinction matters. A simple subtraction can be misleading, especially in high-inflation environments such as Turkey. Comparing purchasing power directly provides a clearer view of how workers’ grocery budgets have changed.

In three of the 26 countries examined, minimum-wage workers lost purchasing power relative to food prices. Malta saw the biggest decline, at 6%, meaning a worker who could buy 100 baskets of food in August 2021 could buy only 94 in August 2026. Spain followed with a 5% drop, while France recorded a 4% fall.

Where Workers Gained The Most

At the other end of the spectrum, Serbia and Montenegro saw the largest gains in food purchasing power, each at 37%. In practical terms, a minimum-wage earner who could afford 100 baskets of food in August 2021 could buy 137 baskets five years later.

Strong improvements were also recorded in Croatia, Albania, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Lithuania, where gains exceeded 20%. Food purchasing power rose by 10% in Ireland, 9% in Germany, 7% in Greece, 6% in Belgium and the Netherlands, and 3% in Portugal.

Turkey’s Wage Growth Still Outpaced Food Prices

In Turkey, minimum wages increased by 823% while food prices rose by 752%. Although the gap between the two is 71 percentage points, the gain in food purchasing power was only 8%. That reflects the fact that wages and prices both rose sharply in lira terms, with wages increasing slightly faster.

The trend was not linear. Turkey’s minimum-wage workers lost ground at points in 2021 and 2022, when food inflation outpaced pay increases. Since January 2024, however, wage growth has stayed ahead of food price growth, leaving workers able to buy more food than they could at the starting point.

The broader lesson is clear: headline wage growth can look impressive, but purchasing power is what ultimately matters. For households living on the minimum wage, the real question is not how fast pay rises, but whether it rises fast enough to keep pace with the cost of food.

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Europe’s Deadly Summer Heat Exposed The Cost Of A Warming Continent

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

October 23, 2026

Europe experienced its deadliest summer for heat-related deaths on record in 2026, with an estimated 24,400 excess deaths linked to extreme temperatures across 30 countries. Researchers estimate that human-induced climate change was responsible for around 32,000 of the deaths attributed to heat in the study’s broader analysis, accounting for 65% of the total.

The findings highlight the growing public-health consequences of global warming, largely driven by fossil fuel use, as extreme heat becomes more frequent and severe.

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A Summer Of Dangerous Heat

Between June and August, heatwaves pushed temperatures in Western Europe to an average of 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 norm, with some days reaching 12°C above average. Nearly a third of estimated heat-related deaths occurred during a particularly intense heatwave between 17 June and 1 July.

“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health,” said Dr Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.

The estimated toll exceeded previous peaks of around 29,000 deaths in summer 2022 and 28,000 in 2003 across the region studied.

How Researchers Estimated The Toll

Researchers modelled the relationship between temperature and mortality across 854 urban areas in the EU, UK, Norway and Switzerland, covering around 40% of the population in the 30 countries studied.

The analysis incorporated temperature records, age, socioeconomic conditions, environmental factors and access to healthcare. By comparing actual temperatures with those expected without human-induced warming, the team estimated the additional deaths attributable to climate change.

Final official mortality figures for summer 2026 are not yet available in many countries, and heat-related deaths are often underreported because their effects can be difficult to identify directly.

Older People Face The Greatest Risk

People aged 85 and over accounted for roughly half of the estimated deaths. However, the impact extended across age groups, with around 800 excess deaths among adults aged 20–44 and approximately 6,000 among people under 65.

Southern Europe experienced the highest mortality burden, reflecting hotter temperatures and other vulnerabilities, including air pollution, limited green space and unequal access to healthcare and heat-alert systems.

Italy, France And Spain Record Highest Toll

Italy recorded an estimated 13,303 heat-related excess deaths, followed by France with 7,268 and Spain with 6,824. Germany recorded around 6,340, while the UK saw an estimated 4,354 deaths.

In the UK, the heat also placed significant pressure on healthcare services. Andrew Hartle, Professor of Practice of Anaesthesia at Imperial College Healthcare, said demand during the summer resembled that of a severe winter virus season.

Cities Urged To Strengthen Heat Protection

Researchers say cities can reduce the risks through climate shelters, external shading and building retrofits, alongside measures to help residents avoid exposure during the hottest hours. Checking on vulnerable people, staying hydrated and following heat alerts are also important.

The researchers stress that adaptation must go hand in hand with reducing fossil fuel use to limit further warming. The findings underline that extreme heat is already a major public-health threat across Europe, with thousands of lives at risk each summer.