Middle East Tensions Cloud Cyprus Growth Outlook As Inflation Pressures Build

Cyprus’ economic growth is expected to slow in 2026 while inflation accelerates, according to updated forecasts from the Economics Research Centre of the University of Cyprus (CypERC), which cited weaker momentum and higher uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

Growth Forecast Revised Lower

CypERC expects real GDP growth to slow to 2.7% in 2026 from an estimated 3.8% in 2025 before recovering to 3.1% in 2027.

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The 2026 forecast was revised down by 0.2 percentage points from the centre’s April projections, while the 2027 estimate was unchanged.

According to CypERC, the downgrade reflects weaker economic activity during the first quarter of 2026 in Cyprus and the euro area, together with signals from leading indicators between April and June. The centre said the conflict in the Middle East has contributed to weaker regional and international economic conditions.

Inflation Expected To Accelerate

The research centre forecasts inflation will rise from 0.1% in 2025 to 3% in 2026 before easing to 2.1% in 2027.

The 2026 and 2027 inflation forecasts were both revised up by 0.3 percentage points from April. CypERC attributed the higher projections mainly to rising international oil prices in April and May, as well as stronger domestic inflation during the second quarter.

“The continuing tensions in the Middle East have intensified upward pressure on international commodity prices, particularly oil, and have increased uncertainty regarding the outlook for economic growth and inflation,” the centre said.

Domestic Fundamentals Remain Supportive

Despite the weaker outlook, CypERC said low unemployment, strong public finances and higher new housing lending should continue to support economic activity.

However, the centre warned that weaker external demand, stronger inflationary pressures and tighter financing conditions could weigh further on growth.

“As the effects of the conflict continue to spread through the Cypriot economy, leading to weaker external demand, stronger inflationary pressures and tighter financing conditions, the risks are tilted towards even lower economic growth than forecast, as well as even higher or more persistent inflation,” the report said.

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Shein Targets $25 Billion Valuation In Hong Kong IPO As Growth Slows

by News Editor

August 17, 2026

Shein is reportedly targeting a valuation of around $25 billion in its planned Hong Kong IPO, a sharp decline from the nearly $100 billion valuation the online fashion retailer achieved in a 2022 fundraising round.

Two people familiar with the plans said the company was likely to target about $25 billion, while another source put the expected range at $25 billion to $28 billion based on the proposed price band.

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IPO Valuation Falls Sharply

Shein plans to sell up to 8% of its shares in the offering, according to a person familiar with the plans. At a $25 billion valuation, that would translate into an IPO of as much as $2 billion.

The latest target is also below the $30 billion to $40 billion valuation the company was seeking earlier this month as it began meeting with potential investors.

Founded in China in 2012 and now headquartered in Singapore, Shein sells low-cost clothing to consumers in about 160 countries. The company is expected to launch its long-awaited Hong Kong IPO later this week.

Trade Restrictions Weigh On Growth

Shein’s valuation has come under pressure as major markets tighten rules affecting low-cost e-commerce shipments. The European Union, for example, has moved to impose additional fees on cheap parcels from platforms such as Shein and Temu. EU Tightens Rules On Low-Cost E-Commerce Parcels

In the U.S., the removal of an import duty exemption for small packages has also affected the company. Shein reported a $99 million quarterly loss in the first quarter of 2026 as sales growth slowed, while a one-time accounting charge further weighed on its results. Shein Reports First-Quarter Loss Ahead Of IPO

Investors Question Shein’s Growth Prospects

The steep reduction in valuation reflects growing concerns over slower growth, higher trade costs, regulatory pressure and stronger competition across global e-commerce.

Some investors who reviewed Shein’s recent financial statements or attended IPO presentations told Reuters they were skeptical that the company could return to the growth rates that supported its $98.2 billion valuation in 2022. Shein’s Slowing Growth Tests Investor Appetite

A lower IPO valuation could also affect Shein’s existing investors. Under the terms of its IPO filing, the company may have to issue additional shares to certain pre-IPO investors if its valuation falls below agreed thresholds.

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