Middle East Crisis Drives Sharp Fuel Price Hikes In Cyprus

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

March 18, 2026

Surge In Fuel Costs Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Within just one week, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has propelled fuel prices in Cyprus by over 7 cents per liter. The most significant increases have been observed in leaded petrol and diesel, reflecting the volatility in global energy markets. This sudden surge is compounded by an escalated price of natural gas, as reported by industry sources, affecting transportation fuels and electricity generation across the European Union and even the United States.

Detailed Analysis Of Price Increases

According to the Consumer Protection Service under the Ministry of Energy, from March 1st to the most recent reporting period, the price of 95-octane petrol increased by 10.7 cents per liter. Concurrently, diesel prices rose by 16.7 cents and heating oil by 13.6 cents per liter. The Consumer Price Index surged from 107 units in March 2022 to 117 units as of the latest measurement.

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Further details indicate that on the latest reporting day, the average sale price of 95 petrol was €1.426 per liter, up from €1.35 the previous Monday, marking an increase of 7.6 cents per liter. Diesel prices similarly rose from €1.462 to €1.592 per liter, a jump of approximately 13 cents per liter, while heating oil climbed by 8.8 cents, from €1.004 to €1.092 per liter.

Impact On Electricity Costs And Broader Economic Implications

The rising oil prices are anticipated to exert upward pressure on utility bills. As noted by the president of the Electricity Authority (EAC), if international oil prices remain at current levels, electricity bills could surge by 5% in May and rise by up to 15% by August. This escalation is expected to trigger propagation effects throughout the supply chain, potentially intensifying existing inflationary pressures.

Calls For Policy Intervention And Subsidy Reinstatement

In response to the escalating fuel costs, various political parties and consumer organizations have urged the government to reinstate fuel subsidies. Historically, Cyprus has mitigated price volatility through reduced consumption taxes on fuels. The Cyprus Consumer Association has estimated that reinstating subsidies could lead to retail price reductions of 8.3 cents per liter for both petrol and diesel, and 6.2 cents for heating oil.

Prominent figures, including parliamentary representative Alekos Tryfonidis, have stressed that rising international oil prices are placing a heavier burden on households, small and medium-sized enterprises, and professionals. Mr. Tryfonidis has called for targeted subsidies with clear criteria and a defined duration to offer timely relief to the public.

Environmental And Economic Considerations

Environmental groups have also joined the appeal for renewed measures, urging the government not only to reinstate fuel subsidies to ease immediate financial pressures on households but also to impose profit caps on fuel companies. They argue that without swift intervention, the burgeoning cost burden could further destabilize the economic landscape.

This scenario underscores the delicate balance policymakers must maintain between supporting consumer welfare and encouraging sustainable market practices amid a global energy crunch.

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Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

June 26, 2026

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

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Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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