Middle East Conflict Poses Risks To Global IT Spending Growth

The escalating conflict in the Middle East is influencing global technology investment patterns, with research firm IDC reporting that geopolitical developments are increasingly reflected in IT spending trends.

Assessing The Impact

According to IDC’s latest report, technology leaders are focused less on whether investments will be affected and more on the scale, duration and consequences of geopolitical disruptions.

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Under the baseline scenario, the conflict would remain contained within a matter of weeks, allowing markets to recover during the second half of the year. In that case, global IT spending is projected to grow by around 10% in 2026, while spending in the Middle East and Africa is expected to increase by approximately 5%, driven largely by device-related expenditures.

Risks And Economic Fallout

IDC warns that continued volatility in energy markets, including recent increases in oil prices, could contribute to broader economic pressures that affect technology spending. A conflict lasting up to three months could reduce global IT market growth by approximately one percentage point, according to the report. Growth in the Middle East and Africa would likely slow further under such a scenario. A longer period of instability could place additional pressure on the sector through higher energy costs and inflation, potentially delaying interest rate reductions and limiting financing conditions for technology projects.

Infrastructure And Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Energy costs remain a key factor influencing technology investment. Data centres, semiconductor manufacturing facilities and global logistics networks require significant energy resources, making them sensitive to changes in oil and gas prices. Disruptions affecting strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz could add further pressure to supply chains by increasing freight, insurance and production costs for semiconductors and other technology components.

Strategic Shifts In The Digital Landscape

IDC also notes changes within the cloud computing sector, with some major hyperscale infrastructure regions now operating in areas affected by geopolitical tensions. As a result, organisations are increasingly adopting multi-availability zone architectures and multi-region deployment strategies to improve operational resilience.

The report also points to growing interest in sovereign infrastructure projects across the Middle East as governments continue investing in national cloud platforms and digital sovereignty initiatives. Such projects are expected to place greater emphasis on resilience, redundancy and disaster recovery capabilities.

Resilience Amid Uncertainty

Despite pressure on consumer technology spending from rising costs and inflation, cybersecurity investment is expected to remain relatively stable. IDC notes that increased state-sponsored cyber activity targeting sectors such as energy, finance, telecommunications and cloud infrastructure continues to drive spending on threat detection and response capabilities. AI investment remains another area of focus. While organisations continue to balance infrastructure costs against expected productivity gains, defence analytics and sovereign AI initiatives in Gulf countries could see increased investment.

IDC concludes that subscription-based business models and hyperscale infrastructure continue to support overall resilience in the global IT market. However, a prolonged conflict could reduce global growth projections by approximately one percentage point, highlighting the technology sector’s exposure to energy markets and global supply chains.

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Europe’s Deadly Summer Heat Exposed The Cost Of A Warming Continent

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

October 23, 2026

Europe experienced its deadliest summer for heat-related deaths on record in 2026, with an estimated 24,400 excess deaths linked to extreme temperatures across 30 countries. Researchers estimate that human-induced climate change was responsible for around 32,000 of the deaths attributed to heat in the study’s broader analysis, accounting for 65% of the total.

The findings highlight the growing public-health consequences of global warming, largely driven by fossil fuel use, as extreme heat becomes more frequent and severe.

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A Summer Of Dangerous Heat

Between June and August, heatwaves pushed temperatures in Western Europe to an average of 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 norm, with some days reaching 12°C above average. Nearly a third of estimated heat-related deaths occurred during a particularly intense heatwave between 17 June and 1 July.

“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health,” said Dr Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.

The estimated toll exceeded previous peaks of around 29,000 deaths in summer 2022 and 28,000 in 2003 across the region studied.

How Researchers Estimated The Toll

Researchers modelled the relationship between temperature and mortality across 854 urban areas in the EU, UK, Norway and Switzerland, covering around 40% of the population in the 30 countries studied.

The analysis incorporated temperature records, age, socioeconomic conditions, environmental factors and access to healthcare. By comparing actual temperatures with those expected without human-induced warming, the team estimated the additional deaths attributable to climate change.

Final official mortality figures for summer 2026 are not yet available in many countries, and heat-related deaths are often underreported because their effects can be difficult to identify directly.

Older People Face The Greatest Risk

People aged 85 and over accounted for roughly half of the estimated deaths. However, the impact extended across age groups, with around 800 excess deaths among adults aged 20–44 and approximately 6,000 among people under 65.

Southern Europe experienced the highest mortality burden, reflecting hotter temperatures and other vulnerabilities, including air pollution, limited green space and unequal access to healthcare and heat-alert systems.

Italy, France And Spain Record Highest Toll

Italy recorded an estimated 13,303 heat-related excess deaths, followed by France with 7,268 and Spain with 6,824. Germany recorded around 6,340, while the UK saw an estimated 4,354 deaths.

In the UK, the heat also placed significant pressure on healthcare services. Andrew Hartle, Professor of Practice of Anaesthesia at Imperial College Healthcare, said demand during the summer resembled that of a severe winter virus season.

Cities Urged To Strengthen Heat Protection

Researchers say cities can reduce the risks through climate shelters, external shading and building retrofits, alongside measures to help residents avoid exposure during the hottest hours. Checking on vulnerable people, staying hydrated and following heat alerts are also important.

The researchers stress that adaptation must go hand in hand with reducing fossil fuel use to limit further warming. The findings underline that extreme heat is already a major public-health threat across Europe, with thousands of lives at risk each summer.

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