Repeated and unusually early heatwaves are changing how travelers perceive summer conditions across Southern Europe, but temperature remains only one factor shaping tourism demand.
An analysis of Italy, France, Spain, Portugal and Greece by The Data Appeal Company and Almaviva Group found that destination appeal, familiarity and resilience continue to influence travel decisions alongside climate conditions.
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Climate Perception Becomes A Tourism Metric
The study uses the Perception of Climate Index (PCI), which measures traveler views of a destination’s climate on a scale of 0 to 100. Researchers analyzed May through September in the five countries using data from 2023 onward, with 2026 figures covering the period through July.
Results suggest climate change is creating pressure on tourism rather than immediately overwhelming demand. Destinations may need to respond through infrastructure improvements, adaptation measures and greater focus on year-round tourism.
France Sees The Sharpest Shift
France recorded the lowest PCI between May and July 2026, averaging 77.2, indicating a stronger deterioration in traveler sentiment following repeated heat exposure.
Portugal was the most resilient, with a score of 93.5, followed by Italy at 91.6, Spain at 90.4 and Greece at 89.9. Italy’s average also slipped from 92.2 in summer 2025 to 91.3 in May-July 2026, suggesting repeated heat events are gradually influencing expectations.
Heatwaves Create Short-Term Swings
Heatwaves generally cause temporary declines in climate perception, followed by recovery as temperatures return to normal. However, the 2026 data suggest earlier, longer and more frequent heatwaves may have a more lasting effect.
For tourism operators, the question is increasingly whether destinations remain reliable summer choices as extreme weather becomes less predictable, rather than simply whether visitors can tolerate high temperatures.
Portugal Shows Greater Stability
Portugal recorded the most stable climate perceptions in the study, with an average PCI of 91.1 across the summers analyzed. That consistency may partly reflect traveler expectations in a market already associated with warm summer conditions.
Spain and Greece also remained resilient despite sharp short-term fluctuations during heatwaves. Since 2023, Spain recorded an average summer PCI of 87.2 and Greece 89.2, although Greece’s 2026 performance was weaker than in previous years.
Tourism Strategy Faces New Climate Pressure
For tourism destinations, climate change is becoming a planning issue as well as a weather challenge. Repeated heatwaves are testing how well Southern European markets can maintain their appeal during the traditional peak season. Infrastructure upgrades, clearer visitor communication and tourism products designed for periods outside July and August could help destinations adapt.
