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Market Volatility Hits 5-Year High Amid Trump’s Tariff Turmoil

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Global stocks took another hit on Monday as President Donald Trump intensified his stance on tariffs, raising fears of a recession. Investors grappled with the fallout from the policy shift in a chaotic trading session, with volatility reaching levels unseen since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Key Facts

  • US stocks fell further on Monday, continuing last week’s heavy losses that erased trillions in market value.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 350 points (0.9%), the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%.
  • At market open, losses were more dramatic: Dow fell 1,320 points (3.4%), S&P 500 dropped 3.9%, and Nasdaq lost 4.2%.
  • A brief rally occurred after unconfirmed reports suggested a temporary tariff suspension, pushing the S&P 500 up 6%, but stocks tumbled again after the White House dismissed the claim.
  • Since Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech on Wednesday, the Dow has fallen 10% (4,300 points), and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have each dropped 11%.
  • Goldman Sachs warned of a possible recession if tariffs remain, while JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that tariffs could drive inflation even higher.

Volatility Hits Pandemic-Era Highs

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)—a key measure of market uncertainty—closed at its highest level since April 2020, when stocks collapsed due to pandemic lockdowns. The VIX surged as S&P 500 swings widened between gains of 3.4% and losses of 4.7%.

Trump Pushes For Fed Rate Cuts

Despite market turmoil, Trump remained steadfast on tariffs. On Truth Social, he urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, falsely claiming, “There is no inflation.”

Economists widely agree that tariffs will worsen inflation, which already exceeds the Fed’s 2% target. The Federal Reserve held a closed-door meeting on Monday to discuss the situation.

Trump appeared unfazed by the stock crash, even sharing a post claiming he was intentionally triggering it.

Bear Market Watch

A bear market occurs when a stock index falls 20% or more from a recent high. Before these tariff-driven declines, the last bear market occurred in 2022, when inflation soared to a 40-year high, prompting aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Biggest Stock Losers From Tariffs

Tech giants suffered major blows on Monday:

  • Apple fell 4%, adding to last week’s 15% decline.
  • Tesla dropped 3%, also down 15% since Thursday.

S&P 500 On The Edge Of A Bear Market

  • Nasdaq officially entered a bear market on Friday.
  • S&P 500 briefly fell over 20% from its February peak before paring losses to 18%.
  • Dow Jones is down 16% from its December record high, while the Nasdaq is down 23% from its peak.

Looking Ahead

With markets in turmoil and inflation concerns mounting, all eyes remain on the White House and the Federal Reserve as investors brace for more uncertainty in the weeks ahead.

Bank Of England Holds Rates At 3.75% In Split Vote As Inflation Risks Rise

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% on Thursday, but the decision was not unanimous. In a 6-3 vote, the Monetary Policy Committee kept rates unchanged, while three members backed a 25-basis-point increase to 4%. Renewed energy price pressures have added to concerns that inflation could remain elevated.

Inflation Pressures Remain

Policymakers said inflation “is likely to rise further over coming quarters,” citing higher and more volatile crude oil and refined energy prices since the conflict began.

So far, there has been “little evidence” of significant second-round effects, such as broader wage and price increases. Inflation risks, however, are now “tilted to the upside” and have increased since the July Monetary Policy Report.

Energy Prices Add To Inflation Risks

Brent crude has risen 36% since July, reaching $106 a barrel on Sept. 14, while UK wholesale gas prices increased 78% to 207 pence per therm.

Higher energy costs can feed into transport, production and household expenses, raising costs across supply chains. Refinery pressures have also pushed crack spreads, the difference between refined fuel and crude prices, well above pre-conflict levels.

Economy Shows Resilience

Despite the inflation risks, UK economic activity has held up slightly better than the Bank expected. A softer labor market and higher borrowing costs are expected to help reduce inflation over time.

Previous monetary tightening is still working through the economy, according to policymakers. So far, the latest energy shock has not produced clear evidence of a broader wage-price spiral.

Major Central Banks Take Different Paths

The decision comes during a busy period for global monetary policy. The Federal Reserve raised rates Wednesday to 3.75%-4% in its first increase since 2023, while the European Central Bank recently lifted its deposit rate to 2.5%.

The Bank of Japan is due to announce its decision Friday, with markets expecting a rate increase. Thursday’s split vote shows that pressure for tighter policy remains within the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

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