Market Volatility Hits 5-Year High Amid Trump’s Tariff Turmoil

Global stocks took another hit on Monday as President Donald Trump intensified his stance on tariffs, raising fears of a recession. Investors grappled with the fallout from the policy shift in a chaotic trading session, with volatility reaching levels unseen since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Key Facts

US stocks fell further on Monday, continuing last week’s heavy losses that erased trillions in market value.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 350 points (0.9%), the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%.
At market open, losses were more dramatic: Dow fell 1,320 points (3.4%), S&P 500 dropped 3.9%, and Nasdaq lost 4.2%.
A brief rally occurred after unconfirmed reports suggested a temporary tariff suspension, pushing the S&P 500 up 6%, but stocks tumbled again after the White House dismissed the claim.
Since Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech on Wednesday, the Dow has fallen 10% (4,300 points), and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have each dropped 11%.
Goldman Sachs warned of a possible recession if tariffs remain, while JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that tariffs could drive inflation even higher.

Volatility Hits Pandemic-Era Highs

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)—a key measure of market uncertainty—closed at its highest level since April 2020, when stocks collapsed due to pandemic lockdowns. The VIX surged as S&P 500 swings widened between gains of 3.4% and losses of 4.7%.

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Trump Pushes For Fed Rate Cuts

Despite market turmoil, Trump remained steadfast on tariffs. On Truth Social, he urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, falsely claiming, “There is no inflation.”

Economists widely agree that tariffs will worsen inflation, which already exceeds the Fed’s 2% target. The Federal Reserve held a closed-door meeting on Monday to discuss the situation.

Trump appeared unfazed by the stock crash, even sharing a post claiming he was intentionally triggering it.

Bear Market Watch

A bear market occurs when a stock index falls 20% or more from a recent high. Before these tariff-driven declines, the last bear market occurred in 2022, when inflation soared to a 40-year high, prompting aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Biggest Stock Losers From Tariffs

Tech giants suffered major blows on Monday:

Apple fell 4%, adding to last week’s 15% decline.
Tesla dropped 3%, also down 15% since Thursday.

S&P 500 On The Edge Of A Bear Market

Nasdaq officially entered a bear market on Friday.
S&P 500 briefly fell over 20% from its February peak before paring losses to 18%.
Dow Jones is down 16% from its December record high, while the Nasdaq is down 23% from its peak.

Looking Ahead

With markets in turmoil and inflation concerns mounting, all eyes remain on the White House and the Federal Reserve as investors brace for more uncertainty in the weeks ahead.

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Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

June 26, 2026

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

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Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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