A sharp drop in first-quarter sales sent LVMH shares into freefall on Tuesday, shaving off 8% and wiping billions from the luxury giant’s market cap. The shockwave didn’t stop there — the entire luxury sector stumbled, with major players from Kering to Burberry following suit.
Sales Slump Sends Warning Signal
LVMH, the world’s largest luxury conglomerate, reported a 3% decline in first-quarter revenue — a result that missed even the most cautious analyst forecasts. The steepest blow came from its wine and spirits division, down 9%, driven by dwindling cognac demand in both the US and China. Geopolitical friction, particularly between Beijing and Washington, continues to cast a long shadow over the global luxury market.
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But the pain didn’t stop at the bar. LVMH’s flagship fashion and leather goods segment — which accounted for nearly 80% of the group’s 2024 profits — fell 5%, while watch sales flatlined.
The geographical breakdown paints a similarly grim picture: sales in Asia (excluding Japan) fell 11%, the US slipped 3%, and Japan dipped 1%. Europe was the only bright spot, posting a modest 2% organic growth.
Analysts Sound The Alarm
Citi analysts Thomas Chauvet and Mahesh Mohankumar didn’t sugarcoat the situation. “There is little reason for optimism,” they told CNBC, noting that LVMH’s results were “generally below the most conservative expectations.” The road ahead doesn’t look smoother, with the duo expressing doubt that the second or third quarters will deliver a rebound — especially as macroeconomic clouds loom over global markets.
Domino Effect In The Luxury Sector
The fallout was swift and widespread. Kering fell 2.5%, Burberry 4.2%, and Richemont dropped 2.26% in early trading, despite broader market gains. Meanwhile, Jefferies slashed its price target for LVMH from €670 to €510, signalling dimmed expectations for the sector leader.
LVMH, which owns iconic brands like Louis Vuitton, Moët & Chandon, and Hennessy, was the first luxury powerhouse to report Q1 earnings after former President Donald Trump reignited fears of retaliatory tariffs — a policy pivot that could shake the luxury industry’s already fragile supply chains.
Uncertainty Clouds The Outlook
Investors are now bracing for the potential knock-on effects of trade tensions — higher raw material costs, disrupted logistics, and unpredictable consumer behavior. LVMH CFO Cécile Cabanis acknowledged the volatility, telling analysts that conditions were “changing every hour,” according to Reuters.
While premium brands are typically more insulated from price shocks — their affluent customers less price-sensitive — analysts warn that a full-blown trade war or global recession could cripple luxury demand, particularly in the US and China.
The Bottom Line
Once seen as recession-proof, the luxury industry is now grappling with a new reality: a volatile global economy, geopolitical tensions, and shifting consumer priorities. LVMH’s stumble isn’t just a bad quarter — it’s a signal that even the most iconic names in fashion and luxury aren’t immune to the world’s growing economic instability.
