The global personal luxury goods market is showing early signs of recovery in the second quarter, even as geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on consumer confidence. According to Bain & Company, stronger-than-expected demand in the United States has helped offset weakness in other major markets.

In its latest annual outlook, Bain said its base-case scenario now forecasts personal luxury sales to grow by between 2% and 4% this year. That compares with a previous projection of 3% to 5%, published in November before the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran reshaped the macroeconomic outlook.

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Valued at €358 billion ($406 billion) in 2025, the global personal luxury goods market has contracted over the past two years. At current exchange rates, sales declined by 2% in 2025, although they increased by 1% at constant exchange rates, highlighting the impact of currency movements on the sector’s overall performance.

Experiences Continue To Outperform Products

Spending on experiences continues to outpace purchases of luxury goods, according to the report, which Bain prepared in partnership with Italian luxury association Altagamma. The findings suggest consumers are becoming more selective, directing discretionary spending toward travel, hospitality and other experience-led services rather than exclusively toward handbags, watches and apparel.

“We see growing uncertainty and turmoil at the macroeconomic and socio-political levels, but the market is there,” Bain partner Francesca Levato told Reuters.

The U.S. Leads While Europe Remains Under Pressure

Stronger-than-expected growth in the United States, supported by domestic brands and younger consumers, is helping offset weaker demand in Europe and the Middle East. China is also showing gradual signs of recovery, with ready-to-wear outperforming leather goods as consumer preferences continue to evolve.

“America is growing more than expected, and China is recovering faster than expected,” Levato said.

Europe, meanwhile, continues to face weaker tourist flows, although Bain reported signs of stabilisation in May.

Luxury Brands Face A Smaller Customer Base

According to Levato, the luxury industry has lost around 70 million consumers since 2022 as brands increased prices and focused more heavily on their highest-spending customers. While that strategy may have supported margins, it also reduced the industry’s consumer base.

“The industry should refuel the growth of the consumer base rather than focus only on the top 1 per cent,” she said.

AI And Resale Continue To Influence Buying Decisions

The report also points to the growing role of artificial intelligence in luxury shopping. Around half of luxury consumers already use AI during the purchasing process, primarily to discover brands and compare products.

Resale is also becoming increasingly influential. Half of luxury shoppers now consult second-hand marketplaces before purchasing new items, reflecting the expanding role of pre-owned goods in consumers’ buying decisions.