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JPMorgan Follows Goldman In Raising Euro Area’s 2025 Growth Forecast

JPMorgan has joined Goldman Sachs in revising its economic growth forecast for the euro area in 2025, increasing it by 0.1 percentage point to 0.8%. For 2026, the bank now expects growth of 1.2%, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points.

“This revision is primarily driven by Germany, but we also anticipate slightly stronger growth across the rest of the region due to spillover effects and a somewhat looser fiscal policy,” JPMorgan economists stated in a note released late Friday.

Last week, German political parties negotiating to form a new government reached an agreement to relax fiscal rules, potentially triggering a borrowing surge of nearly one trillion euros to finance defence and infrastructure investments.

However, JPMorgan cautioned that uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s tariff policies could weigh on economic growth in the coming months. Additionally, the bank projects a slight increase in euro area inflation for both this year and next.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) made its sixth rate cut since June, lowering the deposit rate to 2.5%. Despite this, the ECB warned of “phenomenal uncertainty,” citing risks such as trade wars and increased defence spending, which could drive inflation higher and potentially delay further policy easing.

In its note, JPMorgan also revised its outlook for ECB rate cuts, no longer expecting a reduction in April. Instead, the bank now anticipates only two rate cuts this year—in June and September—compared to its previous forecast of three.

“We see risks that the potential imposition of U.S. tariffs on European goods could push the ECB toward a live decision in April and back to a back-to-back rate-cut approach,” JPMorgan added.

Copyright Law Struggles To Keep Up With AI Training

Courts Are Still Applying Old Copyright Rules To AI

AI companies train models on enormous amounts of published material, including books, articles and academic research. Whether using that content without authors’ permission violates copyright law remains unresolved.

Much of the debate centres on fair use, which allows copyrighted material to be used without permission in certain circumstances. Courts consider factors such as the purpose of the use, how much material was involved and its impact on the original market.

Anthropic Case Sets An Important Precedent

A major case involving Anthropic and a group of authors provided one of the clearest rulings so far. Judge William Alsup found that using copyrighted books to train AI models was lawful, comparing the process to people reading and studying literature before creating something new.

Anthropic was nevertheless ordered to pay $1.5 billion in a settlement. The penalty concerned books the company had obtained from illegal online libraries rather than the AI training itself.

For AI companies, that distinction could prove significant because it separates studying copyrighted material from directly copying it.

Competition Could Be The Key Issue

A case involving Thomson Reuters and Ross Intelligence offers a different perspective. A court ruled that Ross could not claim fair use after using Reuters’ copyrighted material to develop a competing AI-powered legal research platform.

The decision suggests courts may be less willing to consider AI training fair use when copyrighted content is used to build a product that directly competes with the original.

For authors, an unresolved question is whether AI-generated content should be considered competition for the works used to train these models.

The Law Has Yet To Catch Up

US copyright law predates generative AI by decades, leaving courts to apply old principles to new technology. Questions also remain over copyright protection for AI-generated works. In Thaler v. Perlmutter, a court ruled that material created entirely by AI cannot receive copyright protection.

Major AI companies remain involved in copyright litigation, and different courts could reach different conclusions. For now, there is no universal rule: the legality of AI training will depend on the circumstances of each case and how courts ultimately interpret copyright and fair use.

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